Brent-WTI Spread
Track the most important crude oil price differential in real-time. Analyze z-scores, percentiles, and market context for trading decisions.
Live Brent-WTI Spread
What Drives the Brent-WTI Spread?
Spread Widens When:
- - European/Asian demand exceeds US
- - US crude exports face bottlenecks
- - Cushing storage levels high
- - Geopolitical issues affect Brent
Spread Narrows When:
- - US exports increase strongly
- - European refinery maintenance
- - Cushing inventories draw down
- - US becomes swing supplier
Historical Context
Why the Brent-WTI Spread Matters
Global vs US Markets
The spread reveals the relationship between US domestic production and global oil demand. It\'s a key indicator of Atlantic Basin oil flows.
Arbitrage Signals
When the spread exceeds shipping costs ($2-3/bbl), it creates arbitrage opportunities. Traders ship WTI overseas to capture the differential.
Refiner Economics
US Gulf Coast refiners with access to both grades use the spread to optimize feedstock selection and maximize refining margins.
Historical Spread Evolution
WTI Premium Era
WTI traded at a slight premium to Brent as the US was a net importer. Cushing was well-connected to Gulf Coast refineries.
Shale Boom Divergence
US shale production surged, overwhelming pipeline capacity. Cushing storage overflowed, causing WTI to trade $10-25 below Brent.
Pipeline Solutions
New pipelines connected Cushing to Gulf Coast. US crude export ban lifted in 2015. Spread normalized to $3-8 range.
US Export Era
US became a major crude exporter. Spread typically $2-6 with Brent premium, reflecting shipping costs and global demand patterns.
Trading Applications
Long Spread Trades
Buy Brent / Sell WTI when expecting the spread to widen:
- - Cushing inventories building
- - US production rising faster than exports
- - Strong European/Asian demand
- - Spread at historical lows (negative z-score)
Short Spread Trades
Sell Brent / Buy WTI when expecting the spread to narrow:
- - Cushing inventories drawing
- - US export capacity expanding
- - European refinery maintenance
- - Spread at historical highs (positive z-score)
Risk Disclaimer
Spread trading involves significant risk. Past spread behavior may not predict future movements. Always consider position sizing, margin requirements, and geopolitical factors that can cause sudden spread dislocations.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Brent-WTI spread?
The Brent-WTI spread is the price difference between Brent crude oil (the global benchmark) and WTI crude oil (the US benchmark). It reflects the relative pricing dynamics between European/global and US oil markets.
Why does Brent usually trade at a premium to WTI?
Brent typically trades at a premium because it's a seaborne grade with access to global markets, while WTI is landlocked at Cushing, Oklahoma. Shipping constraints and storage levels at Cushing can cause WTI to trade at a discount.
What causes the Brent-WTI spread to widen or narrow?
The spread widens when US production outpaces pipeline/export capacity (WTI weakens) or when global demand is strong (Brent strengthens). It narrows when US exports increase, Cushing inventories drop, or European refinery demand weakens.
What is a normal Brent-WTI spread?
Since 2015, the spread has typically ranged from $2-8 per barrel, with Brent at a premium. However, before 2011, WTI often traded at a premium to Brent. The 2011-2014 period saw spreads as wide as $25 due to the Cushing storage glut.
How do traders use the Brent-WTI spread?
Traders use the spread for: (1) Arbitrage opportunities when the spread diverges from shipping costs, (2) Relative value trades betting on spread convergence/divergence, (3) Hedging international oil exposure, and (4) Gauging US vs global market dynamics.
What is a z-score for the Brent-WTI spread?
The z-score measures how many standard deviations the current spread is from its historical average. A z-score above 2 suggests the spread is unusually wide (Brent premium), while below -2 suggests it's unusually narrow. Extreme z-scores may indicate mean-reversion opportunities.
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