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Monthly Report

March 2022 Oil Market Outlook

Published March 1, 2022

Price Forecasts

WTI Crude Oil

Current Price
$61.00
Apr 2022 Forecast75% conf.
$62.00
Range: $57.00 - $67.00
Jun 2022 Forecast58% conf.
$61.00
Range: $53.00 - $73.00
Outlook: Bullish

Brent Crude Oil

Current Price
$65.00
Apr 2022 Forecast77% conf.
$67.00
Range: $62.00 - $70.00
Jun 2022 Forecast61% conf.
$64.00
Range: $58.00 - $75.00
Outlook: Bearish

Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

Current Price
$2.80
Apr 2022 Forecast71% conf.
$2.90
Range: $2.50 - $3.30
Jun 2022 Forecast61% conf.
$2.70
Range: $2.20 - $3.60
Outlook: Neutral

Key Market Drivers

Technical Trend

-1.3% momentum

EIA STEO Outlook

$63 median (1m), $66 (3m)

Inventory Signal

Builds suggest weakness

Rig Count Signal

Stable, neutral

Market Context

27.8
OPEC Production (mb/d)
28M
Cushing Storage (bbl)
583
US Rig Count

Forecast Accuracy

9.0%
1-Month MAPE
13.0%
3-Month MAPE
63%
1M Direction Accuracy
58%
3M Direction Accuracy

MAPE = Mean Absolute Percentage Error. Lower is better. Direction accuracy shows how often we correctly predicted if price would go up or down.

Disclaimer

These forecasts are statistical projections based on historical price patterns and market indicators. They do not account for geopolitical events, supply disruptions, policy changes, or other unforeseen factors that significantly impact commodity prices. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not financial or trading advice. Use at your own risk.

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