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Monthly Report

September 2022 Oil Market Outlook

Published September 1, 2022

Price Forecasts

WTI Crude Oil

Current Price
$67.00
Oct 2022 Forecast81% conf.
$69.00
Range: $63.00 - $73.00
Dec 2022 Forecast64% conf.
$65.00
Range: $59.00 - $79.00
Outlook: Bullish

Brent Crude Oil

Current Price
$71.00
Oct 2022 Forecast75% conf.
$71.00
Range: $68.00 - $76.00
Dec 2022 Forecast67% conf.
$69.00
Range: $64.00 - $81.00
Outlook: Bearish

Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

Current Price
$3.40
Oct 2022 Forecast77% conf.
$3.50
Range: $3.10 - $3.90
Dec 2022 Forecast67% conf.
$3.90
Range: $2.80 - $4.20
Outlook: Neutral

Key Market Drivers

Technical Trend

-1.9% momentum

EIA STEO Outlook

$69 median (1m), $72 (3m)

Inventory Signal

Builds suggest weakness

Rig Count Signal

Stable, neutral

Market Context

28.4
OPEC Production (mb/d)
34M
Cushing Storage (bbl)
589
US Rig Count

Forecast Accuracy

7.0%
1-Month MAPE
19.0%
3-Month MAPE
69%
1M Direction Accuracy
64%
3M Direction Accuracy

MAPE = Mean Absolute Percentage Error. Lower is better. Direction accuracy shows how often we correctly predicted if price would go up or down.

Disclaimer

These forecasts are statistical projections based on historical price patterns and market indicators. They do not account for geopolitical events, supply disruptions, policy changes, or other unforeseen factors that significantly impact commodity prices. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not financial or trading advice. Use at your own risk.

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