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Monthly Report

November 2022 Oil Market Outlook

Published November 1, 2022

Price Forecasts

WTI Crude Oil

Current Price
$69.00
Dec 2022 Forecast73% conf.
$68.00
Range: $65.00 - $75.00
Feb 2023 Forecast66% conf.
$69.00
Range: $61.00 - $81.00
Outlook: Neutral

Brent Crude Oil

Current Price
$73.00
Dec 2022 Forecast77% conf.
$75.00
Range: $70.00 - $78.00
Feb 2023 Forecast69% conf.
$73.00
Range: $66.00 - $83.00
Outlook: Bullish

Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

Current Price
$3.60
Dec 2022 Forecast79% conf.
$3.90
Range: $3.30 - $4.10
Feb 2023 Forecast69% conf.
$3.30
Range: $3.00 - $4.40
Outlook: Bearish

Key Market Drivers

Technical Trend

-2.1% momentum

EIA STEO Outlook

$71 median (1m), $74 (3m)

Inventory Signal

Near 5-year average

Rig Count Signal

Stable, neutral

Market Context

27.6
OPEC Production (mb/d)
36M
Cushing Storage (bbl)
591
US Rig Count

Forecast Accuracy

9.0%
1-Month MAPE
11.0%
3-Month MAPE
71%
1M Direction Accuracy
66%
3M Direction Accuracy

MAPE = Mean Absolute Percentage Error. Lower is better. Direction accuracy shows how often we correctly predicted if price would go up or down.

Disclaimer

These forecasts are statistical projections based on historical price patterns and market indicators. They do not account for geopolitical events, supply disruptions, policy changes, or other unforeseen factors that significantly impact commodity prices. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not financial or trading advice. Use at your own risk.

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