Monthly Report
January 2023 Oil Market Outlook
Published January 1, 2023
Price Forecasts
WTI Crude Oil
Current Price
$69.00
Feb 2023 Forecast73% conf.
$68.00
Range: $65.00 - $75.00
Apr 2023 Forecast66% conf.
$71.00
Range: $61.00 - $81.00
Outlook: Neutral
Brent Crude Oil
Current Price
$65.00
Feb 2023 Forecast79% conf.
$65.00
Range: $62.00 - $70.00
Apr 2023 Forecast63% conf.
$64.00
Range: $58.00 - $75.00
Outlook: Bullish
Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
Current Price
$2.60
Feb 2023 Forecast73% conf.
$2.90
Range: $2.30 - $3.10
Apr 2023 Forecast69% conf.
$2.30
Range: $2.00 - $3.40
Outlook: Bearish
Key Market Drivers
Technical Trend
-2.1% momentum
EIA STEO Outlook
$71 median (1m), $74 (3m)
Inventory Signal
Near 5-year average
Rig Count Signal
Stable, neutral
Market Context
27.6
OPEC Production (mb/d)
36M
Cushing Storage (bbl)
621
US Rig Count
Forecast Accuracy
11.0%
1-Month MAPE
11.0%
3-Month MAPE
61%
1M Direction Accuracy
66%
3M Direction Accuracy
MAPE = Mean Absolute Percentage Error. Lower is better. Direction accuracy shows how often we correctly predicted if price would go up or down.
Disclaimer
These forecasts are statistical projections based on historical price patterns and market indicators. They do not account for geopolitical events, supply disruptions, policy changes, or other unforeseen factors that significantly impact commodity prices. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not financial or trading advice. Use at your own risk.
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