Monthly Report
March 2024 Oil Market Outlook
Published March 1, 2024
Price Forecasts
WTI Crude Oil
Current Price
$66.00
Apr 2024 Forecast75% conf.
$67.00
Range: $62.00 - $72.00
Jun 2024 Forecast63% conf.
$66.00
Range: $58.00 - $78.00
Outlook: Neutral
Brent Crude Oil
Current Price
$69.00
Apr 2024 Forecast77% conf.
$71.00
Range: $66.00 - $74.00
Jun 2024 Forecast69% conf.
$72.00
Range: $62.00 - $79.00
Outlook: Bullish
Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
Current Price
$2.80
Apr 2024 Forecast79% conf.
$3.10
Range: $2.50 - $3.30
Jun 2024 Forecast63% conf.
$2.70
Range: $2.20 - $3.60
Outlook: Bearish
Key Market Drivers
Technical Trend
-3.3% momentum
EIA STEO Outlook
$68 median (1m), $71 (3m)
Inventory Signal
Near 5-year average
Rig Count Signal
Stable, neutral
Market Context
27.8
OPEC Production (mb/d)
33M
Cushing Storage (bbl)
603
US Rig Count
Forecast Accuracy
9.0%
1-Month MAPE
13.0%
3-Month MAPE
63%
1M Direction Accuracy
63%
3M Direction Accuracy
MAPE = Mean Absolute Percentage Error. Lower is better. Direction accuracy shows how often we correctly predicted if price would go up or down.
Disclaimer
These forecasts are statistical projections based on historical price patterns and market indicators. They do not account for geopolitical events, supply disruptions, policy changes, or other unforeseen factors that significantly impact commodity prices. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not financial or trading advice. Use at your own risk.
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