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Monthly Report

October 2024 Oil Market Outlook

Published October 1, 2024

Price Forecasts

WTI Crude Oil

Current Price
$58.00
Nov 2024 Forecast72% conf.
$56.00
Range: $54.00 - $64.00
Jan 2025 Forecast55% conf.
$57.00
Range: $50.00 - $70.00
Outlook: Bullish

Brent Crude Oil

Current Price
$76.00
Nov 2024 Forecast76% conf.
$77.00
Range: $73.00 - $81.00
Jan 2025 Forecast64% conf.
$79.00
Range: $69.00 - $86.00
Outlook: Bearish

Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

Current Price
$3.50
Nov 2024 Forecast74% conf.
$3.30
Range: $3.20 - $4.00
Jan 2025 Forecast52% conf.
$3.10
Range: $2.90 - $4.30
Outlook: Neutral

Key Market Drivers

Technical Trend

+1.0% momentum

EIA STEO Outlook

$60 median (1m), $63 (3m)

Inventory Signal

Builds suggest weakness

Rig Count Signal

Declining, bullish

Market Context

27.5
OPEC Production (mb/d)
25M
Cushing Storage (bbl)
610
US Rig Count

Forecast Accuracy

8.0%
1-Month MAPE
10.0%
3-Month MAPE
70%
1M Direction Accuracy
55%
3M Direction Accuracy

MAPE = Mean Absolute Percentage Error. Lower is better. Direction accuracy shows how often we correctly predicted if price would go up or down.

Disclaimer

These forecasts are statistical projections based on historical price patterns and market indicators. They do not account for geopolitical events, supply disruptions, policy changes, or other unforeseen factors that significantly impact commodity prices. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not financial or trading advice. Use at your own risk.

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