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Monthly Report

December 2024 Oil Market Outlook

Published December 1, 2024

Price Forecasts

WTI Crude Oil

Current Price
$60.00
Jan 2025 Forecast74% conf.
$60.00
Range: $56.00 - $66.00
Mar 2025 Forecast57% conf.
$61.00
Range: $52.00 - $72.00
Outlook: Neutral

Brent Crude Oil

Current Price
$64.00
Jan 2025 Forecast78% conf.
$63.00
Range: $61.00 - $69.00
Mar 2025 Forecast66% conf.
$62.00
Range: $57.00 - $74.00
Outlook: Bullish

Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

Current Price
$3.70
Jan 2025 Forecast76% conf.
$3.70
Range: $3.40 - $4.20
Mar 2025 Forecast54% conf.
$3.50
Range: $3.10 - $4.50
Outlook: Bearish

Key Market Drivers

Technical Trend

+1.2% momentum

EIA STEO Outlook

$62 median (1m), $65 (3m)

Inventory Signal

Near 5-year average

Rig Count Signal

Declining, bullish

Market Context

27.7
OPEC Production (mb/d)
27M
Cushing Storage (bbl)
612
US Rig Count

Forecast Accuracy

10.0%
1-Month MAPE
12.0%
3-Month MAPE
72%
1M Direction Accuracy
57%
3M Direction Accuracy

MAPE = Mean Absolute Percentage Error. Lower is better. Direction accuracy shows how often we correctly predicted if price would go up or down.

Disclaimer

These forecasts are statistical projections based on historical price patterns and market indicators. They do not account for geopolitical events, supply disruptions, policy changes, or other unforeseen factors that significantly impact commodity prices. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not financial or trading advice. Use at your own risk.

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