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Monthly Report

February 2025 Oil Market Outlook

Published February 1, 2025

Price Forecasts

WTI Crude Oil

Current Price
$60.00
Mar 2025 Forecast74% conf.
$60.00
Range: $56.00 - $66.00
May 2025 Forecast57% conf.
$63.00
Range: $52.00 - $72.00
Outlook: Neutral

Brent Crude Oil

Current Price
$70.00
Mar 2025 Forecast80% conf.
$71.00
Range: $67.00 - $75.00
May 2025 Forecast60% conf.
$74.00
Range: $63.00 - $80.00
Outlook: Bullish

Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

Current Price
$2.70
Mar 2025 Forecast70% conf.
$2.70
Range: $2.40 - $3.20
May 2025 Forecast54% conf.
$2.50
Range: $2.10 - $3.50
Outlook: Bearish

Key Market Drivers

Technical Trend

+1.2% momentum

EIA STEO Outlook

$62 median (1m), $65 (3m)

Inventory Signal

Near 5-year average

Rig Count Signal

Declining, bullish

Market Context

27.7
OPEC Production (mb/d)
27M
Cushing Storage (bbl)
582
US Rig Count

Forecast Accuracy

12.0%
1-Month MAPE
12.0%
3-Month MAPE
62%
1M Direction Accuracy
57%
3M Direction Accuracy

MAPE = Mean Absolute Percentage Error. Lower is better. Direction accuracy shows how often we correctly predicted if price would go up or down.

Disclaimer

These forecasts are statistical projections based on historical price patterns and market indicators. They do not account for geopolitical events, supply disruptions, policy changes, or other unforeseen factors that significantly impact commodity prices. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not financial or trading advice. Use at your own risk.

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