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Monthly Report

December 2025 Oil Market Outlook

Published December 1, 2025

Price Forecasts

WTI Crude Oil

Current Price
$70.00
Jan 2026 Forecast74% conf.
$70.00
Range: $66.00 - $76.00
Mar 2026 Forecast67% conf.
$67.00
Range: $62.00 - $82.00
Outlook: Bullish

Brent Crude Oil

Current Price
$66.00
Jan 2026 Forecast74% conf.
$65.00
Range: $63.00 - $71.00
Mar 2026 Forecast58% conf.
$66.00
Range: $59.00 - $76.00
Outlook: Bearish

Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

Current Price
$3.70
Jan 2026 Forecast68% conf.
$3.50
Range: $3.40 - $4.20
Mar 2026 Forecast64% conf.
$3.50
Range: $3.10 - $4.50
Outlook: Neutral

Key Market Drivers

Technical Trend

+2.2% momentum

EIA STEO Outlook

$72 median (1m), $75 (3m)

Inventory Signal

Builds suggest weakness

Rig Count Signal

Declining, bullish

Market Context

27.7
OPEC Production (mb/d)
37M
Cushing Storage (bbl)
592
US Rig Count

Forecast Accuracy

6.0%
1-Month MAPE
12.0%
3-Month MAPE
72%
1M Direction Accuracy
67%
3M Direction Accuracy

MAPE = Mean Absolute Percentage Error. Lower is better. Direction accuracy shows how often we correctly predicted if price would go up or down.

Disclaimer

These forecasts are statistical projections based on historical price patterns and market indicators. They do not account for geopolitical events, supply disruptions, policy changes, or other unforeseen factors that significantly impact commodity prices. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not financial or trading advice. Use at your own risk.

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