Monthly Report
March 2023 Oil Market Outlook
Published March 1, 2023
Price Forecasts
WTI Crude Oil
Current Price
$71.00
Apr 2023 Forecast75% conf.
$72.00
Range: $67.00 - $77.00
Jun 2023 Forecast68% conf.
$75.00
Range: $63.00 - $83.00
Outlook: Bearish
Brent Crude Oil
Current Price
$67.00
Apr 2023 Forecast81% conf.
$69.00
Range: $64.00 - $72.00
Jun 2023 Forecast65% conf.
$68.00
Range: $60.00 - $77.00
Outlook: Neutral
Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
Current Price
$2.80
Apr 2023 Forecast75% conf.
$2.70
Range: $2.50 - $3.30
Jun 2023 Forecast53% conf.
$2.70
Range: $2.20 - $3.60
Outlook: Bullish
Key Market Drivers
Technical Trend
-2.3% momentum
EIA STEO Outlook
$73 median (1m), $76 (3m)
Inventory Signal
Draws support price
Rig Count Signal
Stable, neutral
Market Context
27.8
OPEC Production (mb/d)
38M
Cushing Storage (bbl)
623
US Rig Count
Forecast Accuracy
13.0%
1-Month MAPE
13.0%
3-Month MAPE
63%
1M Direction Accuracy
68%
3M Direction Accuracy
MAPE = Mean Absolute Percentage Error. Lower is better. Direction accuracy shows how often we correctly predicted if price would go up or down.
Disclaimer
These forecasts are statistical projections based on historical price patterns and market indicators. They do not account for geopolitical events, supply disruptions, policy changes, or other unforeseen factors that significantly impact commodity prices. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not financial or trading advice. Use at your own risk.
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