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Monthly Report

April 2023 Oil Market Outlook

Published April 1, 2023

Price Forecasts

WTI Crude Oil

Current Price
$72.00
May 2023 Forecast76% conf.
$74.00
Range: $68.00 - $78.00
Jul 2023 Forecast69% conf.
$69.00
Range: $64.00 - $84.00
Outlook: Neutral

Brent Crude Oil

Current Price
$68.00
May 2023 Forecast74% conf.
$67.00
Range: $65.00 - $73.00
Jul 2023 Forecast66% conf.
$70.00
Range: $61.00 - $78.00
Outlook: Bullish

Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

Current Price
$2.90
May 2023 Forecast76% conf.
$2.90
Range: $2.60 - $3.40
Jul 2023 Forecast54% conf.
$2.90
Range: $2.30 - $3.70
Outlook: Bearish

Key Market Drivers

Technical Trend

+2.4% momentum

EIA STEO Outlook

$74 median (1m), $77 (3m)

Inventory Signal

Near 5-year average

Rig Count Signal

Declining, bullish

Market Context

27.9
OPEC Production (mb/d)
39M
Cushing Storage (bbl)
624
US Rig Count

Forecast Accuracy

6.0%
1-Month MAPE
14.0%
3-Month MAPE
64%
1M Direction Accuracy
69%
3M Direction Accuracy

MAPE = Mean Absolute Percentage Error. Lower is better. Direction accuracy shows how often we correctly predicted if price would go up or down.

Disclaimer

These forecasts are statistical projections based on historical price patterns and market indicators. They do not account for geopolitical events, supply disruptions, policy changes, or other unforeseen factors that significantly impact commodity prices. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not financial or trading advice. Use at your own risk.

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