Monthly Report
July 2023 Oil Market Outlook
Published July 1, 2023
Price Forecasts
WTI Crude Oil
Current Price
$60.00
Aug 2023 Forecast79% conf.
$60.00
Range: $56.00 - $66.00
Oct 2023 Forecast57% conf.
$60.00
Range: $52.00 - $72.00
Outlook: Neutral
Brent Crude Oil
Current Price
$71.00
Aug 2023 Forecast77% conf.
$73.00
Range: $68.00 - $76.00
Oct 2023 Forecast69% conf.
$69.00
Range: $64.00 - $81.00
Outlook: Bullish
Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
Current Price
$3.20
Aug 2023 Forecast79% conf.
$3.50
Range: $2.90 - $3.70
Oct 2023 Forecast57% conf.
$3.50
Range: $2.60 - $4.00
Outlook: Bearish
Key Market Drivers
Technical Trend
-2.7% momentum
EIA STEO Outlook
$62 median (1m), $65 (3m)
Inventory Signal
Near 5-year average
Rig Count Signal
Stable, neutral
Market Context
28.2
OPEC Production (mb/d)
27M
Cushing Storage (bbl)
627
US Rig Count
Forecast Accuracy
9.0%
1-Month MAPE
17.0%
3-Month MAPE
67%
1M Direction Accuracy
57%
3M Direction Accuracy
MAPE = Mean Absolute Percentage Error. Lower is better. Direction accuracy shows how often we correctly predicted if price would go up or down.
Disclaimer
These forecasts are statistical projections based on historical price patterns and market indicators. They do not account for geopolitical events, supply disruptions, policy changes, or other unforeseen factors that significantly impact commodity prices. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not financial or trading advice. Use at your own risk.
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