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Monthly Report

August 2023 Oil Market Outlook

Published August 1, 2023

Price Forecasts

WTI Crude Oil

Current Price
$61.00
Sep 2023 Forecast80% conf.
$62.00
Range: $57.00 - $67.00
Nov 2023 Forecast58% conf.
$62.00
Range: $53.00 - $73.00
Outlook: Bullish

Brent Crude Oil

Current Price
$72.00
Sep 2023 Forecast78% conf.
$71.00
Range: $69.00 - $77.00
Nov 2023 Forecast58% conf.
$71.00
Range: $65.00 - $82.00
Outlook: Bearish

Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

Current Price
$3.30
Sep 2023 Forecast68% conf.
$3.10
Range: $3.00 - $3.80
Nov 2023 Forecast58% conf.
$3.70
Range: $2.70 - $4.10
Outlook: Neutral

Key Market Drivers

Technical Trend

+2.8% momentum

EIA STEO Outlook

$63 median (1m), $66 (3m)

Inventory Signal

Builds suggest weakness

Rig Count Signal

Declining, bullish

Market Context

28.3
OPEC Production (mb/d)
28M
Cushing Storage (bbl)
628
US Rig Count

Forecast Accuracy

10.0%
1-Month MAPE
18.0%
3-Month MAPE
68%
1M Direction Accuracy
58%
3M Direction Accuracy

MAPE = Mean Absolute Percentage Error. Lower is better. Direction accuracy shows how often we correctly predicted if price would go up or down.

Disclaimer

These forecasts are statistical projections based on historical price patterns and market indicators. They do not account for geopolitical events, supply disruptions, policy changes, or other unforeseen factors that significantly impact commodity prices. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not financial or trading advice. Use at your own risk.

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