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Monthly Report

October 2023 Oil Market Outlook

Published October 1, 2023

Price Forecasts

WTI Crude Oil

Current Price
$63.00
Nov 2023 Forecast72% conf.
$61.00
Range: $59.00 - $69.00
Jan 2024 Forecast60% conf.
$66.00
Range: $55.00 - $75.00
Outlook: Neutral

Brent Crude Oil

Current Price
$74.00
Nov 2023 Forecast80% conf.
$75.00
Range: $71.00 - $79.00
Jan 2024 Forecast60% conf.
$75.00
Range: $67.00 - $84.00
Outlook: Bullish

Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

Current Price
$3.50
Nov 2023 Forecast70% conf.
$3.50
Range: $3.20 - $4.00
Jan 2024 Forecast60% conf.
$3.10
Range: $2.90 - $4.30
Outlook: Bearish

Key Market Drivers

Technical Trend

+3.0% momentum

EIA STEO Outlook

$65 median (1m), $68 (3m)

Inventory Signal

Near 5-year average

Rig Count Signal

Declining, bullish

Market Context

27.5
OPEC Production (mb/d)
30M
Cushing Storage (bbl)
630
US Rig Count

Forecast Accuracy

12.0%
1-Month MAPE
10.0%
3-Month MAPE
70%
1M Direction Accuracy
60%
3M Direction Accuracy

MAPE = Mean Absolute Percentage Error. Lower is better. Direction accuracy shows how often we correctly predicted if price would go up or down.

Disclaimer

These forecasts are statistical projections based on historical price patterns and market indicators. They do not account for geopolitical events, supply disruptions, policy changes, or other unforeseen factors that significantly impact commodity prices. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not financial or trading advice. Use at your own risk.

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