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Monthly Report

November 2023 Oil Market Outlook

Published November 1, 2023

Price Forecasts

WTI Crude Oil

Current Price
$64.00
Dec 2023 Forecast73% conf.
$63.00
Range: $60.00 - $70.00
Feb 2024 Forecast61% conf.
$68.00
Range: $56.00 - $76.00
Outlook: Bullish

Brent Crude Oil

Current Price
$75.00
Dec 2023 Forecast81% conf.
$77.00
Range: $72.00 - $80.00
Feb 2024 Forecast61% conf.
$77.00
Range: $68.00 - $85.00
Outlook: Bearish

Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

Current Price
$3.60
Dec 2023 Forecast71% conf.
$3.70
Range: $3.30 - $4.10
Feb 2024 Forecast61% conf.
$3.30
Range: $3.00 - $4.40
Outlook: Neutral

Key Market Drivers

Technical Trend

-3.1% momentum

EIA STEO Outlook

$66 median (1m), $69 (3m)

Inventory Signal

Builds suggest weakness

Rig Count Signal

Stable, neutral

Market Context

27.6
OPEC Production (mb/d)
31M
Cushing Storage (bbl)
631
US Rig Count

Forecast Accuracy

13.0%
1-Month MAPE
11.0%
3-Month MAPE
71%
1M Direction Accuracy
61%
3M Direction Accuracy

MAPE = Mean Absolute Percentage Error. Lower is better. Direction accuracy shows how often we correctly predicted if price would go up or down.

Disclaimer

These forecasts are statistical projections based on historical price patterns and market indicators. They do not account for geopolitical events, supply disruptions, policy changes, or other unforeseen factors that significantly impact commodity prices. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not financial or trading advice. Use at your own risk.

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