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Monthly Report

December 2023 Oil Market Outlook

Published December 1, 2023

Price Forecasts

WTI Crude Oil

Current Price
$65.00
Jan 2024 Forecast74% conf.
$65.00
Range: $61.00 - $71.00
Mar 2024 Forecast62% conf.
$62.00
Range: $57.00 - $77.00
Outlook: Bearish

Brent Crude Oil

Current Price
$76.00
Jan 2024 Forecast74% conf.
$75.00
Range: $73.00 - $81.00
Mar 2024 Forecast62% conf.
$79.00
Range: $69.00 - $86.00
Outlook: Neutral

Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

Current Price
$3.70
Jan 2024 Forecast72% conf.
$3.90
Range: $3.40 - $4.20
Mar 2024 Forecast62% conf.
$3.50
Range: $3.10 - $4.50
Outlook: Bullish

Key Market Drivers

Technical Trend

+3.2% momentum

EIA STEO Outlook

$67 median (1m), $70 (3m)

Inventory Signal

Draws support price

Rig Count Signal

Declining, bullish

Market Context

27.7
OPEC Production (mb/d)
32M
Cushing Storage (bbl)
632
US Rig Count

Forecast Accuracy

6.0%
1-Month MAPE
12.0%
3-Month MAPE
72%
1M Direction Accuracy
62%
3M Direction Accuracy

MAPE = Mean Absolute Percentage Error. Lower is better. Direction accuracy shows how often we correctly predicted if price would go up or down.

Disclaimer

These forecasts are statistical projections based on historical price patterns and market indicators. They do not account for geopolitical events, supply disruptions, policy changes, or other unforeseen factors that significantly impact commodity prices. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not financial or trading advice. Use at your own risk.

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