Monthly Report
May 2024 Oil Market Outlook
Published May 1, 2024
Price Forecasts
WTI Crude Oil
Current Price
$68.00
Jun 2024 Forecast77% conf.
$66.00
Range: $64.00 - $74.00
Aug 2024 Forecast65% conf.
$70.00
Range: $60.00 - $80.00
Outlook: Bearish
Brent Crude Oil
Current Price
$71.00
Jun 2024 Forecast79% conf.
$71.00
Range: $68.00 - $76.00
Aug 2024 Forecast59% conf.
$69.00
Range: $64.00 - $81.00
Outlook: Neutral
Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
Current Price
$3.00
Jun 2024 Forecast69% conf.
$2.90
Range: $2.70 - $3.50
Aug 2024 Forecast65% conf.
$3.10
Range: $2.40 - $3.80
Outlook: Bullish
Key Market Drivers
Technical Trend
-3.5% momentum
EIA STEO Outlook
$70 median (1m), $73 (3m)
Inventory Signal
Draws support price
Rig Count Signal
Stable, neutral
Market Context
28.0
OPEC Production (mb/d)
35M
Cushing Storage (bbl)
605
US Rig Count
Forecast Accuracy
11.0%
1-Month MAPE
15.0%
3-Month MAPE
65%
1M Direction Accuracy
65%
3M Direction Accuracy
MAPE = Mean Absolute Percentage Error. Lower is better. Direction accuracy shows how often we correctly predicted if price would go up or down.
Disclaimer
These forecasts are statistical projections based on historical price patterns and market indicators. They do not account for geopolitical events, supply disruptions, policy changes, or other unforeseen factors that significantly impact commodity prices. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not financial or trading advice. Use at your own risk.
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