Monthly Report
June 2024 Oil Market Outlook
Published June 1, 2024
Price Forecasts
WTI Crude Oil
Current Price
$69.00
Jul 2024 Forecast78% conf.
$68.00
Range: $65.00 - $75.00
Sep 2024 Forecast66% conf.
$72.00
Range: $61.00 - $81.00
Outlook: Neutral
Brent Crude Oil
Current Price
$72.00
Jul 2024 Forecast80% conf.
$73.00
Range: $69.00 - $77.00
Sep 2024 Forecast60% conf.
$71.00
Range: $65.00 - $82.00
Outlook: Bullish
Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
Current Price
$3.10
Jul 2024 Forecast70% conf.
$3.10
Range: $2.80 - $3.60
Sep 2024 Forecast66% conf.
$3.30
Range: $2.50 - $3.90
Outlook: Bearish
Key Market Drivers
Technical Trend
+3.6% momentum
EIA STEO Outlook
$71 median (1m), $74 (3m)
Inventory Signal
Near 5-year average
Rig Count Signal
Declining, bullish
Market Context
28.1
OPEC Production (mb/d)
36M
Cushing Storage (bbl)
606
US Rig Count
Forecast Accuracy
12.0%
1-Month MAPE
16.0%
3-Month MAPE
66%
1M Direction Accuracy
66%
3M Direction Accuracy
MAPE = Mean Absolute Percentage Error. Lower is better. Direction accuracy shows how often we correctly predicted if price would go up or down.
Disclaimer
These forecasts are statistical projections based on historical price patterns and market indicators. They do not account for geopolitical events, supply disruptions, policy changes, or other unforeseen factors that significantly impact commodity prices. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not financial or trading advice. Use at your own risk.
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