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Monthly Report

July 2024 Oil Market Outlook

Published July 1, 2024

Price Forecasts

WTI Crude Oil

Current Price
$70.00
Aug 2024 Forecast79% conf.
$70.00
Range: $66.00 - $76.00
Oct 2024 Forecast67% conf.
$74.00
Range: $62.00 - $82.00
Outlook: Bullish

Brent Crude Oil

Current Price
$73.00
Aug 2024 Forecast81% conf.
$75.00
Range: $70.00 - $78.00
Oct 2024 Forecast61% conf.
$73.00
Range: $66.00 - $83.00
Outlook: Bearish

Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

Current Price
$3.20
Aug 2024 Forecast71% conf.
$3.30
Range: $2.90 - $3.70
Oct 2024 Forecast67% conf.
$3.50
Range: $2.60 - $4.00
Outlook: Neutral

Key Market Drivers

Technical Trend

-3.7% momentum

EIA STEO Outlook

$72 median (1m), $75 (3m)

Inventory Signal

Builds suggest weakness

Rig Count Signal

Stable, neutral

Market Context

28.2
OPEC Production (mb/d)
37M
Cushing Storage (bbl)
607
US Rig Count

Forecast Accuracy

13.0%
1-Month MAPE
17.0%
3-Month MAPE
67%
1M Direction Accuracy
67%
3M Direction Accuracy

MAPE = Mean Absolute Percentage Error. Lower is better. Direction accuracy shows how often we correctly predicted if price would go up or down.

Disclaimer

These forecasts are statistical projections based on historical price patterns and market indicators. They do not account for geopolitical events, supply disruptions, policy changes, or other unforeseen factors that significantly impact commodity prices. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not financial or trading advice. Use at your own risk.

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