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Monthly Report

August 2024 Oil Market Outlook

Published August 1, 2024

Price Forecasts

WTI Crude Oil

Current Price
$71.00
Sep 2024 Forecast80% conf.
$72.00
Range: $67.00 - $77.00
Nov 2024 Forecast68% conf.
$68.00
Range: $63.00 - $83.00
Outlook: Bearish

Brent Crude Oil

Current Price
$74.00
Sep 2024 Forecast74% conf.
$73.00
Range: $71.00 - $79.00
Nov 2024 Forecast62% conf.
$75.00
Range: $67.00 - $84.00
Outlook: Neutral

Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

Current Price
$3.30
Sep 2024 Forecast72% conf.
$3.50
Range: $3.00 - $3.80
Nov 2024 Forecast68% conf.
$3.70
Range: $2.70 - $4.10
Outlook: Bullish

Key Market Drivers

Technical Trend

+3.8% momentum

EIA STEO Outlook

$73 median (1m), $76 (3m)

Inventory Signal

Draws support price

Rig Count Signal

Declining, bullish

Market Context

28.3
OPEC Production (mb/d)
38M
Cushing Storage (bbl)
608
US Rig Count

Forecast Accuracy

6.0%
1-Month MAPE
18.0%
3-Month MAPE
68%
1M Direction Accuracy
68%
3M Direction Accuracy

MAPE = Mean Absolute Percentage Error. Lower is better. Direction accuracy shows how often we correctly predicted if price would go up or down.

Disclaimer

These forecasts are statistical projections based on historical price patterns and market indicators. They do not account for geopolitical events, supply disruptions, policy changes, or other unforeseen factors that significantly impact commodity prices. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not financial or trading advice. Use at your own risk.

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