Monthly Report
May 2025 Oil Market Outlook
Published May 1, 2025
Price Forecasts
WTI Crude Oil
Current Price
$63.00
Jun 2025 Forecast77% conf.
$61.00
Range: $59.00 - $69.00
Aug 2025 Forecast60% conf.
$61.00
Range: $55.00 - $75.00
Outlook: Neutral
Brent Crude Oil
Current Price
$73.00
Jun 2025 Forecast75% conf.
$73.00
Range: $70.00 - $78.00
Aug 2025 Forecast63% conf.
$73.00
Range: $66.00 - $83.00
Outlook: Bullish
Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
Current Price
$3.00
Jun 2025 Forecast73% conf.
$3.30
Range: $2.70 - $3.50
Aug 2025 Forecast57% conf.
$3.10
Range: $2.40 - $3.80
Outlook: Bearish
Key Market Drivers
Technical Trend
-1.5% momentum
EIA STEO Outlook
$65 median (1m), $68 (3m)
Inventory Signal
Near 5-year average
Rig Count Signal
Stable, neutral
Market Context
28.0
OPEC Production (mb/d)
30M
Cushing Storage (bbl)
585
US Rig Count
Forecast Accuracy
7.0%
1-Month MAPE
15.0%
3-Month MAPE
65%
1M Direction Accuracy
60%
3M Direction Accuracy
MAPE = Mean Absolute Percentage Error. Lower is better. Direction accuracy shows how often we correctly predicted if price would go up or down.
Disclaimer
These forecasts are statistical projections based on historical price patterns and market indicators. They do not account for geopolitical events, supply disruptions, policy changes, or other unforeseen factors that significantly impact commodity prices. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not financial or trading advice. Use at your own risk.
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