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Monthly Report

June 2025 Oil Market Outlook

Published June 1, 2025

Price Forecasts

WTI Crude Oil

Current Price
$64.00
Jul 2025 Forecast78% conf.
$63.00
Range: $60.00 - $70.00
Sep 2025 Forecast61% conf.
$63.00
Range: $56.00 - $76.00
Outlook: Bullish

Brent Crude Oil

Current Price
$74.00
Jul 2025 Forecast76% conf.
$75.00
Range: $71.00 - $79.00
Sep 2025 Forecast64% conf.
$75.00
Range: $67.00 - $84.00
Outlook: Bearish

Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

Current Price
$3.10
Jul 2025 Forecast74% conf.
$2.90
Range: $2.80 - $3.60
Sep 2025 Forecast58% conf.
$3.30
Range: $2.50 - $3.90
Outlook: Neutral

Key Market Drivers

Technical Trend

+1.6% momentum

EIA STEO Outlook

$66 median (1m), $69 (3m)

Inventory Signal

Builds suggest weakness

Rig Count Signal

Declining, bullish

Market Context

28.1
OPEC Production (mb/d)
31M
Cushing Storage (bbl)
586
US Rig Count

Forecast Accuracy

8.0%
1-Month MAPE
16.0%
3-Month MAPE
66%
1M Direction Accuracy
61%
3M Direction Accuracy

MAPE = Mean Absolute Percentage Error. Lower is better. Direction accuracy shows how often we correctly predicted if price would go up or down.

Disclaimer

These forecasts are statistical projections based on historical price patterns and market indicators. They do not account for geopolitical events, supply disruptions, policy changes, or other unforeseen factors that significantly impact commodity prices. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not financial or trading advice. Use at your own risk.

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