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Monthly Report

August 2025 Oil Market Outlook

Published August 1, 2025

Price Forecasts

WTI Crude Oil

Current Price
$66.00
Sep 2025 Forecast80% conf.
$67.00
Range: $62.00 - $72.00
Nov 2025 Forecast63% conf.
$67.00
Range: $58.00 - $78.00
Outlook: Neutral

Brent Crude Oil

Current Price
$76.00
Sep 2025 Forecast78% conf.
$75.00
Range: $73.00 - $81.00
Nov 2025 Forecast66% conf.
$79.00
Range: $69.00 - $86.00
Outlook: Bullish

Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

Current Price
$3.30
Sep 2025 Forecast76% conf.
$3.30
Range: $3.00 - $3.80
Nov 2025 Forecast60% conf.
$3.70
Range: $2.70 - $4.10
Outlook: Bearish

Key Market Drivers

Technical Trend

+1.8% momentum

EIA STEO Outlook

$68 median (1m), $71 (3m)

Inventory Signal

Near 5-year average

Rig Count Signal

Declining, bullish

Market Context

28.3
OPEC Production (mb/d)
33M
Cushing Storage (bbl)
588
US Rig Count

Forecast Accuracy

10.0%
1-Month MAPE
18.0%
3-Month MAPE
68%
1M Direction Accuracy
63%
3M Direction Accuracy

MAPE = Mean Absolute Percentage Error. Lower is better. Direction accuracy shows how often we correctly predicted if price would go up or down.

Disclaimer

These forecasts are statistical projections based on historical price patterns and market indicators. They do not account for geopolitical events, supply disruptions, policy changes, or other unforeseen factors that significantly impact commodity prices. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not financial or trading advice. Use at your own risk.

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