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Monthly Report

September 2025 Oil Market Outlook

Published September 1, 2025

Price Forecasts

WTI Crude Oil

Current Price
$67.00
Oct 2025 Forecast81% conf.
$69.00
Range: $63.00 - $73.00
Dec 2025 Forecast64% conf.
$69.00
Range: $59.00 - $79.00
Outlook: Bullish

Brent Crude Oil

Current Price
$77.00
Oct 2025 Forecast79% conf.
$77.00
Range: $74.00 - $82.00
Dec 2025 Forecast67% conf.
$81.00
Range: $70.00 - $87.00
Outlook: Bearish

Natural Gas (Henry Hub)

Current Price
$3.40
Oct 2025 Forecast77% conf.
$3.50
Range: $3.10 - $3.90
Dec 2025 Forecast61% conf.
$3.90
Range: $2.80 - $4.20
Outlook: Neutral

Key Market Drivers

Technical Trend

-1.9% momentum

EIA STEO Outlook

$69 median (1m), $72 (3m)

Inventory Signal

Builds suggest weakness

Rig Count Signal

Stable, neutral

Market Context

28.4
OPEC Production (mb/d)
34M
Cushing Storage (bbl)
589
US Rig Count

Forecast Accuracy

11.0%
1-Month MAPE
19.0%
3-Month MAPE
69%
1M Direction Accuracy
64%
3M Direction Accuracy

MAPE = Mean Absolute Percentage Error. Lower is better. Direction accuracy shows how often we correctly predicted if price would go up or down.

Disclaimer

These forecasts are statistical projections based on historical price patterns and market indicators. They do not account for geopolitical events, supply disruptions, policy changes, or other unforeseen factors that significantly impact commodity prices. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This is not financial or trading advice. Use at your own risk.

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