Has the Permian Peaked? Testing the Peak-Shale Thesis with EIA Data (Nov 2026)

At their Investor Day on Nov 2, 2026, Goehring & Rozencwajg (G&R) said: “Oil bull markets do not begin when oil runs out. They begin when the dominant source of growth falters.” This post tests that thesis against the Permian, the largest US shale basin, using EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) released Nov 10, 2026.

The peak-shale claim

G&R's case rests on three points:

• The Permian peaked at 5.73 mb/d in Oct 2025, on G&R's own measure (G&R blog, “Is the IEA Quietly Turning Bullish?”, Jan 15, 2026).
• US shale output was down about 200 kb/d year on year (G&R blog, Jan 2026; our paraphrase).
• Shale growth was “close to zero” (Barron's Live, Sept 29, 2026).

In its strongest form the thesis does not need output to collapse. It needs growth to stop. That is the test below.

What EIA's data shows

EIA's STEO (Nov 10, 2026) puts Permian region crude production at 6.751 mb/d in Oct 2025 and 6.881 mb/d in Oct 2026. The Oct 2026 figure is an estimate, and no earlier month in the series (Jan 2018 onward) is higher.

Growth is slowing. Year-on-year change (a month minus the same month a year earlier) ran between +171 and +329 kb/d in every month of 2025. It was +152, +124 and +130 kb/d in Aug, Sep and Oct 2026. The weakest month was Jan 2026, at +92 kb/d.

US crude output set a monthly record of 13,995 kb/d in Oct 2025 and was 13,965 kb/d in Aug 2026, +130 kb/d year on year (EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly, PSM, latest month Aug 2026). EIA's weekly figure for the week to Oct 30, 2026 was 14,003 kb/d (Weekly Petroleum Status Report, series WCRFPUS2), a modelled estimate rather than a measurement.

Why G&R's number and EIA's differ

G&R's 5.73 mb/d is 1.02 mb/d below EIA's 6.751 mb/d for the same month (6.751 − 5.73 = 1.021). A gap that size suggests G&R count something narrower, such as tight oil only, rather than all crude from the Permian region. We have not confirmed their definition.

The trend matters more than the level. On EIA's measure, Oct 2025 was not a peak: output was higher in 10 of the 12 months that followed.

The newest state data are the least settled. Texas figures arrive with a lag and are revised up, so the latest months can understate output.

Texas oil production is below its April peak; New Mexico's is at a record

The Permian straddles west Texas and southeast New Mexico, and the two states are moving in opposite directions. Texas peaked at 5,851 kb/d in Apr 2026 and was 5,710 kb/d in Aug 2026, 141 kb/d lower (5,851 − 5,710). Its year-on-year change was −10, −72 and −126 kb/d in Jun, Jul and Aug 2026. Texas totals also include the Eagle Ford and other basins.

New Mexico set a record of 2,442 kb/d in Aug 2026, +199 kb/d year on year. Together the two states were up 73 kb/d year on year in Aug 2026 (199 − 126). Given the upward revisions to Texas data, the Texas decline is the figure most likely to change.

What a shale peak looked like before

Two shale basins have already peaked. The Bakken reached 1.529 mb/d in Nov 2019 and was 1.206 mb/d in Oct 2026, 21% lower ((1.529 − 1.206) / 1.529). The Eagle Ford reached 1.418 mb/d in Dec 2019 and was 1.109 mb/d in Oct 2026, 22% lower.

Both peaks came months before output fell in 2020 (Bakken low 0.861 mb/d in May 2020; Eagle Ford low 0.891 mb/d in Feb 2021). Neither basin has regained its peak in the nearly seven years since. A peak is confirmed only in hindsight.

Leading indicators: rigs, DUCs and completions

Production follows drilling with a lag, so rigs, drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs) and completions show where output is heading. Codes in the source column are OilPriceAPI series.

Activity is up, not down. On Nov 6, 2026 there were 49 more US oil rigs and 22 more Permian rigs than a year earlier.

Permian DUCs fell by 181 from Dec 2025 to Jun 2026 (967 − 786), meaning more wells were completed than drilled. They rose by 45 by Oct 2026 (831 − 786), with 516 wells drilled against about 500 completed that month.

What would confirm a peak

Permian year-on-year growth below zero for three or more months in a row, still negative after EIA's revisions. The last such run in the STEO data was Aug 2020 to Mar 2021. Every month since Apr 2021 has been positive.

The other way, growth back inside 2025's +171 to +329 kb/d range would undercut the slowdown. Texas's decline holding up after revisions would strengthen the peak case.

Track the leading indicators with the API

This prints the latest Permian DUC count and US rig count. The Permian, Bakken and Eagle Ford production series are not in the API yet; the charts above use EIA's STEO directly.

import requests

URL = "https://api.oilpriceapi.com/v1/prices/latest"
HEADERS = {"Authorization": "Token YOUR_API_KEY"}

for code in ("PERMIAN_DUC_WELLS", "US_RIG_COUNT"):
    response = requests.get(URL, params={"by_code": code},
                            headers=HEADERS, timeout=10)
    response.raise_for_status()
    body = response.json()
    data = body.get("data") or {}
    if body.get("status") != "success" or data.get("code") != code:
        raise SystemExit(f"{code}: no usable result")
    print(code, data.get("price"), data.get("unit"),
          "as of", data.get("created_at"))

Get an API key to run it.

Verdict

Still growing, but slowing toward a plateau. On EIA's numbers the Permian has not peaked: Oct 2026 (6.881 mb/d, estimate) is the highest month since at least Jan 2018, and growth is still positive at +130 kb/d. G&R are right that growth has slowed, and Texas output is below its April 2026 peak on data that is still being revised.

A 2027 peak is plausible on our reading of EIA's data. That is a reading, not a forecast. EIA's own STEO forecast has the Permian at 7.317 mb/d in Dec 2027.

Data pages

• US shale oil production
• Permian Basin data
• US rig count