U.S. energy supply constraints · weekly · by PADD

Where U.S. fuel supply is tightening this week

National index

62Normal

0Loose

30Normal

70Tight

85Critical

Confidence: High confidence
Data as of: week ending 2026-08-21
Next EIA release: Wed, Sep 2, 10:30 AM EDT
Methodology: v0.1

Six EIA weekly series for the country and four for each PADD, each placed in its own five-year seasonal range and combined into one explainable number. Every value carries its source and week-ending date. Holiday weeks move the EIA release by a day.

PADD 1

East Coast

Tight

PADD 2

Midwest

Normal

PADD 3

Gulf Coast

Normal

PADD 4

Rocky Mountain

Loose

PADD 5

West Coast

Normal

Schematic, not to scale. PADD = Petroleum Administration for Defense District, the five regions EIA reports weekly. Bars: distillate · gasoline · crude · refining pressure.

What changed

The three moves that shifted the reading

Ranked by change in seasonal pressure since last week's report, so a distillate draw and a crude build are comparable.

U.S. commercial crude stocks
loosened 12 pts
+0.1 M bbl
now at the 68th percentile of its seasonal range · pressure 32
Lower-48 working gas in storage
tightened 4 pts
+15 Bcf
now at the 60th percentile of its seasonal range · pressure 40
U.S. total gasoline stocks
seasonal standing unchanged
−2.5 M bbl
now at the 0th percentile of its seasonal range · pressure 100

Components

Six inputs, each against its own season

The band behind each line is the five-year range for this same week. Pressure is where this week sits inside that band, inverted where low means tight.

Distillate stocks

weight 30%

103.4 M bbl

−2.2 M bbl w/w

100

pressure

0th percentile of 25 same-week readings, 5 yrs · band 111.5 M bbl–140.5 M bbl

Diesel, heating oil and jet feed freight, farms and furnaces. The most sensitive stock in the system.

Gasoline stocks

weight 15%

206.8 M bbl

−2.5 M bbl w/w

100

pressure

0th percentile of 25 same-week readings, 5 yrs · band 214.5 M bbl–228.2 M bbl

Finished gasoline plus blending components. Seasonal by design; the band matters more than the level.

Commercial crude stocks

weight 15%

428.9 M bbl

+0.1 M bbl w/w

pressure

68th percentile of 25 same-week readings, 5 yrs · band 416.6 M bbl–445.6 M bbl

Feedstock outside the SPR. Low crude does not mean low fuel unless refining is also constrained.

Refinery utilization

weight 25%

97.4%

+0.2 pts w/w

pressure

100th percentile of 25 same-week readings, 5 yrs · band 81.9%–96.6%

Share of operable distillation capacity running. Below-normal means output is offline.

Strategic Petroleum Reserve

weight 10%

289.7 M bbl

−3.7 M bbl w/w

100

pressure

0th percentile of 25 same-week readings, 5 yrs · band 347.8 M bbl–621.3 M bbl

The federal emergency stock. Policy moves it; we read the level against its own five-year range.

Working gas in storage

weight 5%

3,184 Bcf

+15 Bcf w/w

pressure

60th percentile of 25 same-week readings, 5 yrs · band 2,501 Bcf–3,387 Bcf

Lower-48 working gas. Fuel switching and power burn make it a substitution buffer for the liquids complex.

By region

The five PADDs

Regional scores use distillate, gasoline, crude and refinery utilization. The Gulf Coast refines for the East Coast; a tight PADD 1 with a loose PADD 3 is a logistics question, not a supply one.

Region	Score	Condition	Distillate	Gasoline	Crude	Refining	Confidence
United States	62	Normal	100	100	32	0	high
PADD 1 · East Coast	77	Tight	100	88	28	72	high
PADD 2 · Midwest	58	Normal	64	100	100	0	high
PADD 3 · Gulf Coast	53	Normal	100	92	0	4	high
PADD 4 · Rocky Mountain	28	Loose	20	52	68	0	high
PADD 5 · West Coast	59	Normal	84	84	84	0	high

Component columns are pressures 0–100. National includes SPR and gas storage; PADDs do not.

What you are looking at

Twenty-six series in. One response out.

The rows on the left are public. The work is keeping them normalized, fresh on EIA's calendar, revision-aware and joined — every week. That is what the response on the right is.

What this page assembled this week

26 EIA series · 3 API routes · 5 PADDs · six years of history each

WCESTUS1 · petroleum/stoc/wstk · U.S. commercial crude stocks
428,910 MBBL 2026-08-21
WCESTP11 · petroleum/stoc/wstk · PADD 1 crude stocks
8,423 MBBL 2026-08-21
WCESTP21 · petroleum/stoc/wstk · PADD 2 crude stocks
101,195 MBBL 2026-08-21
WCESTP31 · petroleum/stoc/wstk · PADD 3 crude stocks
251,424 MBBL 2026-08-21
WCESTP41 · petroleum/stoc/wstk · PADD 4 crude stocks
22,524 MBBL 2026-08-21
WCESTP51 · petroleum/stoc/wstk · PADD 5 crude stocks
45,343 MBBL 2026-08-21
WGTSTUS1 · petroleum/stoc/wstk · U.S. total gasoline stocks
206,842 MBBL 2026-08-21
WGTSTP11 · petroleum/stoc/wstk · PADD 1 gasoline stocks
52,254 MBBL 2026-08-21
WGTSTP21 · petroleum/stoc/wstk · PADD 2 gasoline stocks
43,264 MBBL 2026-08-21
WGTSTP31 · petroleum/stoc/wstk · PADD 3 gasoline stocks
77,183 MBBL 2026-08-21
WGTSTP41 · petroleum/stoc/wstk · PADD 4 gasoline stocks
6,519 MBBL 2026-08-21
WGTSTP51 · petroleum/stoc/wstk · PADD 5 gasoline stocks
27,622 MBBL 2026-08-21
WDISTUS1 · petroleum/stoc/wstk · U.S. distillate stocks
103,391 MBBL 2026-08-21
WDISTP11 · petroleum/stoc/wstk · PADD 1 distillate stocks
21,003 MBBL 2026-08-21
WDISTP21 · petroleum/stoc/wstk · PADD 2 distillate stocks
28,563 MBBL 2026-08-21
WDISTP31 · petroleum/stoc/wstk · PADD 3 distillate stocks
39,556 MBBL 2026-08-21
WDISTP41 · petroleum/stoc/wstk · PADD 4 distillate stocks
3,674 MBBL 2026-08-21
WDISTP51 · petroleum/stoc/wstk · PADD 5 distillate stocks
10,595 MBBL 2026-08-21
WCSSTUS1 · petroleum/stoc/wstk · Strategic Petroleum Reserve
289,726 MBBL 2026-08-21
WPULEUS3 · petroleum/pnp/wiup · U.S. refinery utilization
97.4 PERCENT 2026-08-21
W_NA_YUP_R10_PER · petroleum/pnp/wiup · PADD 1 refinery utilization
86.7 PERCENT 2026-08-21
W_NA_YUP_R20_PER · petroleum/pnp/wiup · PADD 2 refinery utilization
101.8 PERCENT 2026-08-21
W_NA_YUP_R30_PER · petroleum/pnp/wiup · PADD 3 refinery utilization
97 PERCENT 2026-08-21
W_NA_YUP_R40_PER · petroleum/pnp/wiup · PADD 4 refinery utilization
101.4 PERCENT 2026-08-21
W_NA_YUP_R50_PER · petroleum/pnp/wiup · PADD 5 refinery utilization
93.7 PERCENT 2026-08-21
NW2_EPG0_SWO_R48_BCF · natural-gas/stor/wkly · Lower-48 working gas in storage
3,184 BCF 2026-08-21

Each series has its own identifier scheme, units and week-ending date. EIA revises values in place. The seasonal range for every one is recomputed against the same week in each of the prior five years, every release, forever. That standing work is the product; the numbers are public domain at the source.

One response

GET /v1/constraints/us · preview

endpoint in development

{
  "geography": "US",
  "score": 62,
  "condition": "normal",
  "confidence": "high",
  "methodology": "v0.1",
  "data_as_of": "2026-08-21",
  "generated_at": "2026-08-27T23:02:13.298Z",
  "next_release": {
    "report": "EIA WPSR",
    "at": "2026-09-02T14:30:00.000Z"
  },
  "components": {
    "distillate": {
      "value": 103391,
      "units": "MBBL",
      "week_ending": "2026-08-21",
      "week_change": -2228,
      "seasonal_percentile": 0,
      "seasonal_band": {
        "min": 111490,
        "median": 117923,
        "max": 140511,
        "n": 25
      },
      "pressure": 100,
      "source": {
        "agency": "EIA",
        "series": "WDISTUS1"
      }
    },
    "gasoline": {
      "value": 206842,
      "units": "MBBL",
      "week_ending": "2026-08-21",
      "week_change": -2536,
      "seasonal_percentile": 0,
      "seasonal_band": {
        "min": 214475,
        "median": 219997,
        "max": 228165,
        "n": 25
      },
      "pressure": 100,
      "source": {
        "agency": "EIA",
        "series": "WGTSTUS1"
      }
    },
    "crude": {
      "value": 428910,
      "units": "MBBL",
      "week_ending": "2026-08-21",
      "week_change": 95,
      "seasonal_percentile": 68,
      "seasonal_band": {
        "min": 416637,
        "median": 425183,
        "max": 445622,
        "n": 25
      },
      "pressure": 32,
      "source": {
        "agency": "EIA",
        "series": "WCESTUS1"
      }
    },
    "utilization": {
      "value": 97.4,
      "units": "PERCENT",
      "week_ending": "2026-08-21",
      "week_change": 0.20000000000000284,
      "seasonal_percentile": 100,
      "seasonal_band": {
        "min": 81.9,
        "median": 93.3,
        "max": 96.6,
        "n": 25
      },
      "pressure": 0,
      "source": {
        "agency": "EIA",
        "series": "WPULEUS3"
      }
    },
    "spr": {
      "value": 289726,
      "units": "MBBL",
      "week_ending": "2026-08-21",
      "week_change": -3700,
      "seasonal_percentile": 0,
      "seasonal_band": {
        "min": 347754,
        "median": 404201,
        "max": 621304,
        "n": 25
      },
      "pressure": 100,
      "source": {
        "agency": "EIA",
        "series": "WCSSTUS1"
      }
    },
    "gas_storage": {
      "value": 3184,
      "units": "BCF",
      "week_ending": "2026-08-21",
      "week_change": 15,
      "seasonal_percentile": 60,
      "seasonal_band": {
        "min": 2501,
        "median": 3083,
        "max": 3387,
        "n": 25
      },
      "pressure": 40,
      "source": {
        "agency": "EIA",
        "series": "NW2_EPG0_SWO_R48_BCF"
      }
    }
  },
  "padds": {
    "1": {
      "score": 77,
      "condition": "tight",
      "confidence": "high"
    },
    "2": {
      "score": 58,
      "condition": "normal",
      "confidence": "high"
    },
    "3": {
      "score": 53,
      "condition": "normal",
      "confidence": "high"
    },
    "4": {
      "score": 28,
      "condition": "loose",
      "confidence": "high"
    },
    "5": {
      "score": 59,
      "condition": "normal",
      "confidence": "high"
    }
  },
  "warnings": []
}

The values are live; the endpoint is not yet. Today the national stocks, SPR, Cushing and gas storage behind this page are served by the API; PADD series and the constraint score are the next release.

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The framework

What is live, what is being built, what is planned

The constraints picture has six layers. Three are on this page. The gaps are named so nobody mistakes a partial reading for a complete one.

Stocks by PADD

Live

On this page: Crude, gasoline and distillate stocks for all five PADDs and the U.S., each against its own five-year seasonal range.
Next: Days of supply by PADD once product-supplied series are normalized.

Refining

Live

On this page: Refinery utilization by PADD, read as lost output when it runs below seasonal norms.
Next: Gross inputs, crack spreads and refining margins as a scored price-and-margin component.

Strategic buffers

Live

On this page: Strategic Petroleum Reserve level and Lower-48 working gas in storage.
Next: Heating and cooling degree days, so storage moves are read against weather.

Disruption evidence

Building

On this page: Not scored yet. Nothing on this page infers an outage.
Next: Regulator filings, operator notices and hurricane closures, each labelled confirmed, corroborated or suspected.

Refinery signals

Planned

On this page: Not on this page.
Next: Facility-level capacity from the EIA Refinery Capacity Report; thermal signals evaluated only after they prove accurate.

Delivery

Building

On this page: This page refreshes on the EIA release calendar and shows data-as-of on every number.
Next: Constraint endpoints, release-timed alerts and point-in-time history through the API.

Methodology

How the number is made

Component	Weight	Tight when	Scope	EIA series
Distillate availability	30%	below seasonal norm	U.S. and PADD 1–5	WDISTUS1, WDISTP11, WDISTP21, WDISTP31, WDISTP41, WDISTP51
Refinery operating pressure	25%	below seasonal norm	U.S. and PADD 1–5	WPULEUS3, W_NA_YUP_R10_PER, W_NA_YUP_R20_PER, W_NA_YUP_R30_PER, W_NA_YUP_R40_PER, W_NA_YUP_R50_PER
Gasoline availability	15%	below seasonal norm	U.S. and PADD 1–5	WGTSTUS1, WGTSTP11, WGTSTP21, WGTSTP31, WGTSTP41, WGTSTP51
Crude feedstock position	15%	below seasonal norm	U.S. and PADD 1–5	WCESTUS1, WCESTP11, WCESTP21, WCESTP31, WCESTP41, WCESTP51
Strategic reserve	10%	below seasonal norm	U.S. only	WCSSTUS1
Gas substitution buffer	5%	below seasonal norm	Lower 48 only	NW2_EPG0_SWO_R48_BCF

Methodology v0.1. Each component is placed in its own seasonal distribution: the same week of year ± 2 weeks across the prior 5 years. Its percentile becomes a pressure from 0 to 100, inverted where a low reading means tight supply. A window with fewer than 8 readings is not scored.

The national index is the weighted sum of the six components. PADD scores use the four regional components, weights renormalized. A region needs at least two scored components to show a number.

Confidence is published separately from severity and is about the inputs: high when every series is inside nine days of its week-ending date, medium inside sixteen, low beyond that or when an input is missing. A missing or stale input lowers confidence; it never becomes zero pressure.

Labels are this page's interpretation of public data, not an official classification and not trading advice. Weights are a starting hypothesis and are versioned; they will be backtested before anyone calls them predictive.

Sources: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (stocks, refinery utilization) and Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report, via the EIA v2 API. EIA-authored series are public domain at the source.

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