U.S. energy supply constraints · weekly · by PADD

Where U.S. fuel supply is tightening this week

National index

64Normal

0Loose

30Normal

70Tight

85Critical

Confidence: High confidence
Data as of: week ending 2026-10-02
Next petroleum report: Thu, Oct 15, 12:00 PM EDTmoved for Columbus Day
Next gas storage report: Thu, Oct 15, 10:30 AM EDT
Methodology: v0.1

Six EIA weekly series for the country and four for each PADD, each placed in its own five-year seasonal range and combined into one explainable number. Every value carries its source and week-ending date. Release times follow EIA's published schedule, holiday shifts included.

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PADD 1

East Coast

Critical

PADD 2

Midwest

Tight

PADD 3

Gulf Coast

Normal

PADD 4

Rocky Mountain

Normal

PADD 5

West Coast

Normal

Schematic, not to scale. PADD = Petroleum Administration for Defense District, the five regions EIA reports weekly. Bars: distillate · gasoline · crude · refining pressure.

What changed

The three moves that shifted the reading

Ranked by change in seasonal pressure since last week's report, so a distillate draw and a crude build are comparable. A stock can build and still tighten if its seasonal norm rose faster.

U.S. commercial crude stocks
tightened 16 pts vs norm
−3.2 M bbl
seasonal norm moved +0.6 M bbl · now at the 64th percentile · pressure 36
U.S. refinery utilization
loosened 8 pts vs norm
+0.2 pts
now at the 92th percentile · pressure 8
Lower-48 working gas in storage
loosened 8 pts vs norm
+85 Bcf
seasonal norm moved +92 Bcf · now at the 60th percentile · pressure 40

Components

Six inputs, each against its own season

The band behind each line is the five-year range for this same week. Pressure is where this week sits inside that band, inverted where low means tight.

Distillate stocks

weight 30%

105.1 M bbl

−0.0 M bbl w/w

100

pressure

0th percentile of 25 same-week readings, 5 yrs · band 106.1 M bbl–129.7 M bbl

Diesel, heating oil and jet feed freight, farms and furnaces. The most sensitive stock in the system.

Gasoline stocks

weight 15%

204.7 M bbl

+0.4 M bbl w/w

100

pressure

0th percentile of 25 same-week readings, 5 yrs · band 207.5 M bbl–227.0 M bbl

Finished gasoline plus blending components. Seasonal by design; the band matters more than the level.

Commercial crude stocks

weight 15%

424.1 M bbl

−3.2 M bbl w/w

pressure

64th percentile of 25 same-week readings, 5 yrs · band 413.0 M bbl–439.1 M bbl

Feedstock outside the SPR. Low crude does not mean low fuel unless refining is also constrained.

Refinery utilization

weight 25%

92.7%

+0.2 pts w/w

pressure

92nd percentile of 25 same-week readings, 5 yrs · band 84.7%–93.6%

Share of operable distillation capacity running. Below-normal means output is offline.

Strategic Petroleum Reserve

weight 10%

283.0 M bbl

−0.8 M bbl w/w

100

pressure

0th percentile of 25 same-week readings, 5 yrs · band 351.0 M bbl–619.6 M bbl

The federal emergency stock. Policy moves it; we read the level against its own five-year range.

Working gas in storage

weight 5%

3,500 Bcf

+85 Bcf w/w

pressure

60th percentile of 25 same-week readings, 5 yrs · band 2,874 Bcf–3,798 Bcf

Lower-48 working gas. Fuel switching and power burn make it a substitution buffer for the liquids complex.

By region

The five PADDs

Regional scores use distillate, gasoline, crude and refinery utilization. The Gulf Coast refines for the East Coast; a tight PADD 1 with a loose PADD 3 is a logistics question, not a supply one.

Region	Score	Condition	Distillate	Gasoline	Crude	Refining	Confidence
United States	64	Normal	100	100	36	8	high
PADD 1 · East Coast	87	Critical	100	100	68	76	high
PADD 2 · Midwest	74	Tight	92	100	36	58	high
PADD 3 · Gulf Coast	36	Normal	32	100	32	4	high
PADD 4 · Rocky Mountain	51	Normal	68	60	84	4	high
PADD 5 · West Coast	64	Normal	100	60	100	0	high

Component columns are pressures 0–100. National includes SPR and gas storage; PADDs do not.

What you are looking at

26 series in. One response out.

The rows on the left are public. The work is keeping them normalized, fresh on EIA's calendar, revision-aware and joined — every week. That is what the response on the right is.

What this page assembled this week

26 EIA series · 3 API routes · 5 PADDs · six years of history each

WCESTUS1 · petroleum/stoc/wstk · U.S. commercial crude stocks
424,134 MBBL 2026-10-02
WCESTP11 · petroleum/stoc/wstk · PADD 1 crude stocks
7,744 MBBL 2026-10-02
WCESTP21 · petroleum/stoc/wstk · PADD 2 crude stocks
106,981 MBBL 2026-10-02
WCESTP31 · petroleum/stoc/wstk · PADD 3 crude stocks
243,599 MBBL 2026-10-02
WCESTP41 · petroleum/stoc/wstk · PADD 4 crude stocks
22,352 MBBL 2026-10-02
WCESTP51 · petroleum/stoc/wstk · PADD 5 crude stocks
43,458 MBBL 2026-10-02
WGTSTUS1 · petroleum/stoc/wstk · U.S. total gasoline stocks
204,744 MBBL 2026-10-02
WGTSTP11 · petroleum/stoc/wstk · PADD 1 gasoline stocks
53,743 MBBL 2026-10-02
WGTSTP21 · petroleum/stoc/wstk · PADD 2 gasoline stocks
41,410 MBBL 2026-10-02
WGTSTP31 · petroleum/stoc/wstk · PADD 3 gasoline stocks
75,041 MBBL 2026-10-02
WGTSTP41 · petroleum/stoc/wstk · PADD 4 gasoline stocks
6,694 MBBL 2026-10-02
WGTSTP51 · petroleum/stoc/wstk · PADD 5 gasoline stocks
27,856 MBBL 2026-10-02
WDISTUS1 · petroleum/stoc/wstk · U.S. distillate stocks
105,138 MBBL 2026-10-02
WDISTP11 · petroleum/stoc/wstk · PADD 1 distillate stocks
21,687 MBBL 2026-10-02
WDISTP21 · petroleum/stoc/wstk · PADD 2 distillate stocks
26,205 MBBL 2026-10-02
WDISTP31 · petroleum/stoc/wstk · PADD 3 distillate stocks
43,857 MBBL 2026-10-02
WDISTP41 · petroleum/stoc/wstk · PADD 4 distillate stocks
3,453 MBBL 2026-10-02
WDISTP51 · petroleum/stoc/wstk · PADD 5 distillate stocks
9,937 MBBL 2026-10-02
WCSSTUS1 · petroleum/stoc/wstk · Strategic Petroleum Reserve
282,983 MBBL 2026-10-02
WPULEUS3 · petroleum/pnp/wiup · U.S. refinery utilization
92.7 PERCENT 2026-10-02
W_NA_YUP_R10_PER · petroleum/pnp/wiup · PADD 1 refinery utilization
77.9 PERCENT 2026-10-02
W_NA_YUP_R20_PER · petroleum/pnp/wiup · PADD 2 refinery utilization
88.2 PERCENT 2026-10-02
W_NA_YUP_R30_PER · petroleum/pnp/wiup · PADD 3 refinery utilization
95 PERCENT 2026-10-02
W_NA_YUP_R40_PER · petroleum/pnp/wiup · PADD 4 refinery utilization
98.8 PERCENT 2026-10-02
W_NA_YUP_R50_PER · petroleum/pnp/wiup · PADD 5 refinery utilization
95.2 PERCENT 2026-10-02
NW2_EPG0_SWO_R48_BCF · natural-gas/stor/wkly · Lower-48 working gas in storage
3,500 BCF 2026-10-02

Each series has its own identifier scheme, units and week-ending date. EIA revises values in place. The seasonal range for every one is recomputed against the same week in each of the prior five years, every release, forever. That standing work is the product; the numbers are public domain at the source.

One response

GET /v1/constraints/us · preview

endpoint in development

{
  "geography": "US",
  "score": 64,
  "condition": "normal",
  "confidence": "high",
  "methodology": "v0.1",
  "data_as_of": "2026-10-02",
  "generated_at": "2026-10-12T05:42:43.266Z",
  "next_release": {
    "report": "EIA WPSR",
    "at": "2026-10-15T16:00:00.000Z"
  },
  "components": {
    "distillate": {
      "value": 105138,
      "units": "MBBL",
      "week_ending": "2026-10-02",
      "week_change": -42,
      "seasonal_percentile": 0,
      "seasonal_band": {
        "min": 106063,
        "median": 118795,
        "max": 129727,
        "n": 25
      },
      "pressure": 100,
      "source": {
        "agency": "EIA",
        "series": "WDISTUS1"
      }
    },
    "gasoline": {
      "value": 204744,
      "units": "MBBL",
      "week_ending": "2026-10-02",
      "week_change": 382,
      "seasonal_percentile": 0,
      "seasonal_band": {
        "min": 207460,
        "median": 219093,
        "max": 226984,
        "n": 25
      },
      "pressure": 100,
      "source": {
        "agency": "EIA",
        "series": "WGTSTUS1"
      }
    },
    "crude": {
      "value": 424134,
      "units": "MBBL",
      "week_ending": "2026-10-02",
      "week_change": -3186,
      "seasonal_percentile": 64,
      "seasonal_band": {
        "min": 413042,
        "median": 420887,
        "max": 439082,
        "n": 25
      },
      "pressure": 36,
      "source": {
        "agency": "EIA",
        "series": "WCESTUS1"
      }
    },
    "utilization": {
      "value": 92.7,
      "units": "PERCENT",
      "week_ending": "2026-10-02",
      "week_change": 0.20000000000000284,
      "seasonal_percentile": 92,
      "seasonal_band": {
        "min": 84.7,
        "median": 89.5,
        "max": 93.6,
        "n": 25
      },
      "pressure": 8,
      "source": {
        "agency": "EIA",
        "series": "WPULEUS3"
      }
    },
    "spr": {
      "value": 282983,
      "units": "MBBL",
      "week_ending": "2026-10-02",
      "week_change": -784,
      "seasonal_percentile": 0,
      "seasonal_band": {
        "min": 350980,
        "median": 406700,
        "max": 619569,
        "n": 25
      },
      "pressure": 100,
      "source": {
        "agency": "EIA",
        "series": "WCSSTUS1"
      }
    },
    "gas_storage": {
      "value": 3500,
      "units": "BCF",
      "week_ending": "2026-10-02",
      "week_change": 85,
      "seasonal_percentile": 60,
      "seasonal_band": {
        "min": 2874,
        "median": 3461,
        "max": 3798,
        "n": 25
      },
      "pressure": 40,
      "source": {
        "agency": "EIA",
        "series": "NW2_EPG0_SWO_R48_BCF"
      }
    }
  },
  "padds": {
    "1": {
      "score": 87,
      "condition": "critical",
      "confidence": "high"
    },
    "2": {
      "score": 74,
      "condition": "tight",
      "confidence": "high"
    },
    "3": {
      "score": 36,
      "condition": "normal",
      "confidence": "high"
    },
    "4": {
      "score": 51,
      "condition": "normal",
      "confidence": "high"
    },
    "5": {
      "score": 64,
      "condition": "normal",
      "confidence": "high"
    }
  },
  "warnings": []
}

The values are live; the endpoint is not yet. National stocks, the SPR, Cushing and Lower-48 gas storage are served by the API today. PADD-level series and the constraint score are not in the API yet; this page computes them from EIA at render time.

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PADD-level series and the constraint score are not in the API yet; this page computes them from EIA at render time. Leave your email and we will send one message when the constraints data is available through the API.

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The framework

What is live, what is being built, what is planned

The constraints picture has six layers. Three are on this page. The gaps are named so nobody mistakes a partial reading for a complete one.

Stocks by PADD

Live

On this page: Crude, gasoline and distillate stocks for all five PADDs and the U.S., each against its own five-year seasonal range.
Next: Days of supply by PADD once product-supplied series are normalized.

Refining

Live

On this page: Refinery utilization by PADD, read as lost output when it runs below seasonal norms.
Next: Gross inputs, crack spreads and refining margins as a scored price-and-margin component.

Strategic buffers

Live

On this page: Strategic Petroleum Reserve level and Lower-48 working gas in storage.
Next: Heating and cooling degree days, so storage moves are read against weather.

Disruption evidence

Building

On this page: Not scored yet. Nothing on this page infers an outage.
Next: Regulator filings, operator notices and hurricane closures, each labelled confirmed, corroborated or suspected.

Refinery signals

Planned

On this page: Not on this page.
Next: Facility-level capacity from the EIA Refinery Capacity Report; thermal signals evaluated only after they prove accurate.

Delivery

Building

On this page: This page refreshes on the EIA release calendar and shows data-as-of on every number.
Next: Constraint endpoints, release-timed alerts and point-in-time history through the API.

Methodology

How the number is made

Component	Weight	Tight when	Scope	EIA series
Distillate availability	30%	below seasonal norm	U.S. and PADD 1–5	WDISTUS1, WDISTP11, WDISTP21, WDISTP31, WDISTP41, WDISTP51
Refinery operating pressure	25%	below seasonal norm	U.S. and PADD 1–5	WPULEUS3, W_NA_YUP_R10_PER, W_NA_YUP_R20_PER, W_NA_YUP_R30_PER, W_NA_YUP_R40_PER, W_NA_YUP_R50_PER
Gasoline availability	15%	below seasonal norm	U.S. and PADD 1–5	WGTSTUS1, WGTSTP11, WGTSTP21, WGTSTP31, WGTSTP41, WGTSTP51
Crude feedstock position	15%	below seasonal norm	U.S. and PADD 1–5	WCESTUS1, WCESTP11, WCESTP21, WCESTP31, WCESTP41, WCESTP51
Strategic reserve	10%	below seasonal norm	U.S. only	WCSSTUS1
Gas substitution buffer	5%	below seasonal norm	Lower 48 only	NW2_EPG0_SWO_R48_BCF

Methodology v0.1. Each component is placed in its own seasonal distribution: the same week of year ± 2 weeks across the prior 5 years. Its percentile becomes a pressure from 0 to 100, inverted where a low reading means tight supply. A window with fewer than 8 readings is not scored.

The national index is the weighted sum of the six components. PADD scores use the four regional components, weights renormalized. A region needs at least two scored components to show a number.

Confidence is published separately from severity and is about the inputs: high when every series is inside nine days of its week-ending date, medium inside sixteen, low beyond that or when an input is missing. A missing or stale input lowers confidence; it never becomes zero pressure.

Labels are this page's interpretation of public data, not an official classification and not trading advice. Weights are a starting hypothesis and are versioned; they will be backtested before anyone calls them predictive.

Sources: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (stocks, refinery utilization) and Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report, via the EIA v2 API. EIA-authored series are public domain at the source.

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