Brent Physical vs Futures
Live spread between Brent Dated (physical North Sea crude) and ICE Brent futures
Brent Dated (Physical)
$125.44
per barrel · EIA RBRTE (FOB Sullom Voe)
Brent ICE Futures
$104.42
per barrel · nearest month
Physical Premium
+$21.02
+20.1% vs futures
⚡ Physical Brent is trading dramatically above the futures curve. Spreads above $10/bbl historically signal acute short-term supply tightness — usually from refinery outages, pipeline disruptions, or geopolitical shocks that bid up real barrels for immediate delivery.
Why Physical vs Futures Matters
Refiner buying signal
Physical premium means refiners are paying above the futures curve for immediate delivery — a signal that paper markets are underpricing supply tightness.
Geopolitical stress test
The spread widens fast during sanctions (2022 Russia), wars (Middle East), and hurricane seasons. It's a real-time proxy for physical oil market stress.
Term contract pricing
Brent Dated is the formula benchmark for roughly two-thirds of global physical crude trade — including most Middle East, West African, and Mediterranean grades.
When has the Dated-Futures Spread Spiked?
| Period | Trigger | Peak Spread |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 2022 | Russia invades Ukraine — physical buyers shun Urals, compete for Brent | +$15/bbl |
| Sep 2023 | OPEC+ extends voluntary cuts, refinery margins spike | +$6/bbl |
| Apr 2026 (current) | Iran regional conflict — strait transit uncertainty, physical buyers front-run sanctions | +$21.02/bbl |
Get the Live Spread via API
# Brent Dated (physical, EIA RBRTE)
curl -H "Authorization: Token YOUR_API_KEY" \
https://api.oilpriceapi.com/v1/prices/latest?by_code=BRENT_SPOT_USD
# Brent ICE futures
curl -H "Authorization: Token YOUR_API_KEY" \
https://api.oilpriceapi.com/v1/prices/latest?by_code=BRENT_CRUDE_USD