US Diesel Stocks Drop Below 100 Million Barrels for the First Time Since 2003
By OilPriceAPI · Published · EIA weekly data for the week ending Oct 30, 2026; EIA retail diesel for Nov 9, 2026
US distillate fuel oil stocks were 99.259 million barrels in the week ending Oct 30, 2026, 25.6 million barrels (−20.5%) below the 2016-2025 average for the same week (EIA, WDISTUS1). That is the first weekly reading below 100 million barrels since May 9, 2003.
This page compares a post by John Kemp, the energy market analyst, with EIA's weekly data. The seasonal framing, the ten-year comparison and the standard- deviation measure are his; we rebuilt the numbers. Read his original post on X.
The claim
On Nov 5, 2026, Kemp wrote:
“U.S. DISTILLATE fuel oil inventories slipped last week below 100 million barrels for the first time since 2022 and before that 2008. Inventories were 25 million barrels (-20% or -1.63 standard deviations) below the ten-year seasonal average, reversing the previous trend towards deficit reduction. Stocks were just 99 million barrels on October 30, far below the next-lowest level for the time of year of almost 107 million barrels, underscoring the shortage of fuel”
Verdict: the seasonal deficit checks out, and the record runs longer than the post says. On EIA's weekly series, stocks did not fall below 100 million barrels in 2022 or 2008; the last time was May 9, 2003.
The seasonal deficit: 25.6 million barrels
Following Kemp's method, we compared Oct 30, 2026 with the week ending nearest Oct 30 in each of the ten years 2016-2025. Their average is 124.87 million barrels, so the deficit is 99.259 − 124.87 = -25.61 million barrels, or -20.5%. With the sample standard deviation of 16.25 million barrels it is -1.58 standard deviations; with the population formula it is -1.66. Kemp's −1.63 sits between the two, so the difference is the formula, not the data.
His “next-lowest level for the time of year of almost 107 million barrels” is the week ending Oct 28, 2022, at 106.8 million (EIA). Our table agrees.
| Week ending | Distillate stocks, mb |
|---|---|
| 2016-10-28 | 150.6 |
| 2017-10-27 | 128.9 |
| 2018-11-02 | 122.9 |
| 2019-11-01 | 119.1 |
| 2020-10-30 | 154.6 |
| 2021-10-29 | 127.1 |
| 2022-10-28 | 106.8 |
| 2023-10-27 | 111.3 |
| 2024-11-01 | 115.8 |
| 2025-10-31 | 111.5 |
| 2026-10-30 | 99.3 |
Source: EIA weekly series WDISTUS1, WPSR released Nov 4, 2026. Ten-year average and standard deviations computed by OilPriceAPI from unrounded values.
Below 100 million barrels: 2003, not 2022 or 2008
Kemp dates the previous sub-100 readings to 2022 and 2008. EIA's weekly series does not show them: the 2022 low was 104.029 million barrels (May 6, 2022) and the 2008 low was 104.702 million (Apr 18, 2008). The last weekly reading below 100 million was May 9, 2003. EIA's monthly series (MDISTUS1) agrees: its last month below 100 million before 2026 was Apr 2003, at 97.181 million. Kemp may be using a different series or measure; his own “almost 107” comparison is consistent with ours. Either way the point he makes, that stocks are at a multi-decade low for the season, holds.
Why stocks are low: what the same EIA report shows
In the four weeks to Oct 30, US refineries ran at higher utilization than in the same weeks of 2021-2025, and both domestic distillate demand and distillate exports were higher. Stocks fell anyway: demand plus exports outran output. Overseas refinery outages, which our diesel price check discusses, are not measured in this report.
| Measure (4-week average) | To Oct 30, 2026 | Same weeks, 2021-25 |
|---|---|---|
| Distillate product supplied | 4.18 mb/d | 3.96 mb/d |
| Distillate exports | 1.35 mb/d | 1.14 mb/d |
| Refinery utilization | 93.5% | 87.4% |
Source: EIA weekly series WDIUPUS2, WDIEXUS2, WPULEUS3; four-week averages computed by OilPriceAPI.
What it means for retail diesel prices
The EIA US average retail diesel price was $6.127 a gallon on Nov 9, 2026. It set a record of $6.529 on Sep 21, 2026 (previous record $5.81, Jun 20, 2022), and the weekly prices averaged $6.252 in October (EIA, EMD_EPD2D_PTE_NUS_DPG). Low stocks leave less buffer between refinery margins and the pump; the crack-spread analysis tracks that margin, and the live diesel price page tracks the pump price.
Pull distillate stocks and retail diesel with the OilPriceAPI
Both latest values are available today and match EIA: on Nov 12, 2026 the API returned distillate stocks of 99.259 million barrels for the week ending Oct 30 and retail diesel of $6.127 for Nov 9.
import requests
BASE = "https://api.oilpriceapi.com/v1"
HEADERS = {"Authorization": "Token YOUR_API_KEY"}
# Latest EIA weekly stocks by product (million barrels)
stocks = requests.get(f"{BASE}/ei/oil_inventories/by_product",
headers=HEADERS, timeout=30).json()["data"]
dist = next(p for p in stocks["products"] if p["product_type"] == "distillate")
print("Week ending", stocks["week_ending"], "distillate",
dist["volume_mmbbl"], "mb", f'{dist["week_over_week"]:+.3f}')
# Latest EIA US average retail diesel (USD per gallon)
retail = requests.get(f"{BASE}/prices/latest",
params={"by_code": "DIESEL_RETAIL_USD"},
headers=HEADERS, timeout=30).json()["data"]
print("Retail diesel", retail["price"], "USD/gal, EIA week of",
retail["observed_at"][:10])Use the latest values for now. Our weekly stock history currently starts at Dec 12, 2025, and the DIESEL_RETAIL_USD history has known defects: daily-average history rounds to two decimals, and rows before Jun 2026 carry the ingestion date rather than EIA's Monday. Fixes and a ten-year backfill are in progress. Until then, the long history on this page comes from EIA directly. See US inventory data and the EIA data API.
What to watch
- The next Weekly Petroleum Status Report, for the week ending Nov 6, is out Thursday Nov 12, 2026 at 12:00 p.m. ET, a day late for Veterans Day (EIA release schedule). A reading below 99.259 million barrels would be the lowest since 2003.
- Total commercial stocks, which also sit below their five-year range: our check of Rory Johnston's inventory post.
Sources
- EIA weekly distillate stocks WDISTUS1, Jan 1995 to the week ending Oct 30, 2026 (WPSR released Nov 4, 2026), and monthly MDISTUS1, via EIA API v2, retrieved Nov 12, 2026.
- EIA weekly WDIUPUS2, WDIEXUS2 and WPULEUS3; EIA retail diesel EMD_EPD2D_PTE_NUS_DPG through Nov 9, 2026.
- EIA WPSR release schedule, holiday dates for 2026.
- OilPriceAPI /v1/ei/oil_inventories/by_product and /v1/prices/latest (DIESEL_RETAIL_USD), Nov 12, 2026.
Credit: the observation tested here, the ten-year seasonal comparison and the standard-deviation framing are the work of John Kemp. Original work: his post on X, Nov 5, 2026. We compare it with EIA data; the analysis is his.
Not investment advice. No forecast is made here.