Why Is Diesel So Expensive? Testing the ‘$200 Oil’ Claim With Crack-Spread Data (Nov 2026)
By OilPriceAPI · Published · OPA data through Nov 10, 2026; EIA spot data through Nov 3, 2026; EIA weekly data for the week ending Oct 30, 2026
Diesel is expensive because its premium over crude is extreme: New York Harbor ULSD spot minus WTI set an all-time high of $124.60 a barrel on Oct 8, 2026, and was still $102.90 on Nov 3, about five times its 2015-2019 average of $20.20 (EIA). US distillate stocks were 99.3 million barrels in the week ending Oct 30, 2026, the lowest since May 2003 (EIA).
Diesel also costs more than gasoline at the refinery gate, because its margin is wider. On Nov 10, 2026, NYMEX ULSD futures were $87.30 a barrel above WTI, while the 3-2-1 crack, two parts gasoline to one part diesel, was $45.30 (OPA, computed). With the standard 3-2-1 weights, that leaves a gasoline crack of about $24.30: (3 × $45.30 − $87.30) ÷ 2.
The claim
The claim comes in two parts. Goehring & Rozencwajg's (G&R) blog post of Aug 7, 2026, “Why Haven't the Tanks Run Dry?”, put the WTI crack spread at “$60 - highest ever recorded”. And crude could go to $200 a barrel, the price diesel already implies: that is per Barron's Live, Sept 29, 2026, as paraphrased by G&R. We could not verify the exact wording, so we do not quote it.
Read at its strongest, the argument is that diesel is already priced for an oil market tight enough to justify $200 crude. We test it on three points: the crack record, diesel at $200 a barrel, and the crude price diesel implies.
Verdict, as of Nov 10, 2026: mostly right on the facts; $200 is a stretch. The record claims hold: the futures 3-2-1 crack passed its old record on Jul 14, and the spot 3-2-1 and diesel cracks set records in September and October. The “$60, highest ever” line was early for the Gulf Coast spot 3-2-1, which had not broken its 2008 record by Aug 7. Diesel near $200 holds at spot. At a normal diesel margin, diesel prices on Nov 3 (spot) and Nov 10 (futures), 2026, imply crude of $140-182; they implied $192-205 only at the Sep 16, 2026 peak.
Diesel against crude
Diesel near $200 a barrel is true at spot. NY Harbor ULSD hit an all-time high of $225.30 on Sep 16, 2026 (2008 high: $173.60), was at or above $200 on 31 days in 2026, and was $202.60 on Nov 3, 2026 (EIA). Futures are lower: the NYMEX ULSD front month was $173.00 on Nov 10, 2026 (OPA). Our data does not hold spot and futures for the same day.
| Benchmark | Date | Diesel, $/bbl | WTI, $/bbl | Diesel minus WTI, $/bbl |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYH ULSD spot, 2008 high | 2008 | 173.60 | – | – |
| NYH ULSD spot, all-time high | Sep 16, 2026 | 225.30 | – | – |
| NYH ULSD spot | Nov 3, 2026 | 202.60 | – | 102.90 |
| NYMEX ULSD front month | Nov 10, 2026 | 173.00 | 85.76 | 87.30 |
| ICE low-sulphur gasoil | Nov 10, 2026 | 170.80 | – | – |
Source: EIA spot prices (NY Harbor ULSD; ULSD minus WTI). OPA: NYMEX ULSD = HEATING_OIL_USD $4.12/gal × 42; WTI_USD front month; ICE gasoil = GASOIL_USD $1,272.47/t ÷ 7.45 bbl/t. A dash means the figure is not in our data for that row.
At the pump, the EIA US average retail diesel price set a record of $6.529 a gallon on Sep 21, 2026 (previous record: $5.81, Jun 20, 2022) and was $6.127 on Nov 9, 2026.
Record crack spreads, spot and futures
A crack spread is the product price minus the crude price, per barrel. The crack spreads guide explains the variants; the crack spread page shows the latest values.
| Crack spread | Pre-2026 record, $/bbl | 2026 high, $/bbl | Latest 2026, $/bbl |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYMEX front-month 3-2-1 | 64.60 (Apr 28, 2022) | 75.80 (Sep 23) | 45.30 (Nov 10) |
| Gulf Coast spot 3-2-1 | 80.60 (Sep 12, 2008) | 90.80 (Sep 23) | 45.00 (Nov 3) |
| NYH ULSD spot minus WTI | 118.70 (May 11, 2022) | 124.60 (Oct 8) | 102.90 (Nov 3) |
| NYMEX ULSD minus WTI | – | – | 87.30 (Nov 10) |
Source: NYMEX 3-2-1 pre-2026 record from EIA NYMEX futures history, excluding Apr 20, 2020 (negative WTI); its 2026 values are OPA, computed from WTI_USD, GASOLINE_RBOB_USD and HEATING_OIL_USD. Spot rows: EIA. NYMEX ULSD minus WTI: OPA, HEATING_OIL_USD × 42 − WTI_USD. Normal NYH ULSD spot minus WTI: $20.20 (2015-2019 average) to $32.90 (2023-2025 average), EIA.
The $60 test. The NYMEX 3-2-1 crack first passed its pre-2026 record on Jul 14, 2026, at $65.80. On Aug 7, the day of G&R's post, it was $59.20, so the $60 level is right. Strictly, that day's reading sat below the 2022 record; “highest ever” describes the summer run, not the Aug 7 print. On spot prices the claim was early: the Gulf Coast 3-2-1 was not a record on Aug 7 and set one on Sep 23, 2026, at $90.80.
The diesel crack. NY Harbor ULSD spot minus WTI hit an all-time high of $124.60 on Oct 8, 2026 (previous record: $118.70, May 11, 2022). At $102.90 on Nov 3, 2026, it was 3.1 times its 2023-2025 average and 5.1 times its 2015-2019 average (EIA).
The squeeze is concentrated in diesel. From their Sep 23 highs, the futures 3-2-1 crack fell 40% to Nov 10 and the Gulf Coast spot 3-2-1 fell 50% to Nov 3. The diesel crack fell 17% from its Oct 8 high to Nov 3.
The implied-crude math
If the diesel crack returned to normal while diesel held its price, crude would have to fill the gap:
Implied crude = diesel price − normal diesel crack
“Normal” is $32.90 (the 2023-2025 average) or $20.20 (the 2015-2019 average) for NY Harbor ULSD spot minus WTI (EIA).
| Diesel price used | Date | Diesel, $/bbl | Implied crude at $32.90 crack, $/bbl | Implied crude at $20.20 crack, $/bbl |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYH ULSD spot, all-time high | Sep 16, 2026 | 225.30 | 192.40 | 205.10 |
| NYH ULSD spot | Nov 3, 2026 | 202.60 | 169.70 | 182.40 |
| NYMEX ULSD front month | Nov 10, 2026 | 173.00 | 140.10 | 152.80 |
Source: diesel prices from EIA spot (NY Harbor ULSD) and OPA (HEATING_OIL_USD × 42); normal cracks from EIA spot averages. Applied to the futures row, a spot-based normal is an approximation. For comparison, the WTI front month was $85.76 on Nov 10, 2026 (OPA WTI_USD).
$200 appears only at the September peak, and only with the lower 2015-2019 margin. On Nov 10, 2026 futures, the implied crude is $140-153, which is $54-67 above WTI's $85.76.
This is arithmetic, not a forecast. The gap can also close the other way, with diesel falling toward crude. Reading $200 crude straight off $200 diesel assumes a diesel crack of zero; the lowest average in our data is $20.20.
Distillate stocks at a 23-year low; US refineries aren't the bottleneck
US distillate stocks were 99.3 million barrels in the week ending Oct 30, 2026, the lowest since May 2003 (EIA, WDISTUS1). That is the data behind talk of a diesel shortage.
US refineries are not where the capacity is missing. US refinery utilization was 94.5% that week (EIA, WPULEUS3). The refining capacity that is offline is outside the US.
What would prove the claim right or wrong
- Right, literally: WTI trades at $200. The front month was $85.76 on Nov 10, 2026.
- Right, by the diesel test: implied crude reaches $200 when NY Harbor ULSD spot is at least $220.20 (with a $20.20 crack) or $232.90 (with a $32.90 crack). Its all-time high, on Sep 16, 2026, was $225.30, so the test passed then only on the 2015-2019 margin.
- Wrong: the diesel crack narrows toward $20.20-32.90 with diesel falling rather than crude rising. Track it in EIA spot data or as 42 × HEATING_OIL_USD − WTI_USD.
- Stocks: the case weakens if weekly EIA distillate stocks rebuild from 99.3 million barrels (Oct 30, 2026) and strengthens if they set new lows below that level.
Track the diesel crack in Python
This computes the NYMEX diesel crack, 42 × HEATING_OIL_USD − WTI_USD, from daily OPA history. HEATING_OIL_USD is NYMEX ULSD in dollars per gallon; a barrel is 42 gallons. Drop weekend rows: HEATING_OIL_USD and GASOLINE_RBOB_USD carry Saturday prints (Oct 24, Oct 31 and Nov 7, 2026).
import datetime as dt
import requests
API = "https://api.oilpriceapi.com/v1/prices/past_year"
HEADERS = {"Authorization": "Token YOUR_API_KEY"}
def daily(code):
r = requests.get(API, params={"by_code": code, "interval": "1d"},
headers=HEADERS, timeout=30)
r.raise_for_status()
out = {}
for row in r.json()["data"]["prices"]:
stamp = row.get("created_at") or row.get("timestamp")
day = dt.date.fromisoformat(stamp[:10])
if day.weekday() >= 5: # drop Saturday/Sunday prints
continue
out.setdefault(day, float(row["price"])) # first row per day
return out
ulsd = daily("HEATING_OIL_USD") # NYMEX ULSD, USD per gallon
wti = daily("WTI_USD") # USD per barrel
for day in sorted(set(ulsd) & set(wti))[-10:]:
crack = 42 * ulsd[day] - wti[day] # 42 gallons per barrel
print(day, f"ULSD {42 * ulsd[day]:.2f}", f"WTI {wti[day]:.2f}",
f"crack {crack:.2f} USD/bbl")The calculated-spread endpoint returns the same difference per day: /v1/spreads/crack/historical?type=diesel&crude=WTI_USD&start_date=2026-09-01&end_date=2026-11-10. The crack spread API guide covers its errors and fields. For the 3-2-1 and other product mixes, use the crack spread calculator; for the June to September 2026 run-up, see why diesel rose faster than crude.
Sources
- EIA spot prices: NY Harbor ULSD, WTI and the Gulf Coast 3-2-1, through Nov 3, 2026. EIA NYMEX futures history for the pre-2026 3-2-1 record.
- EIA weekly data, week ending Oct 30, 2026 (released Nov 4): distillate stocks (WDISTUS1) and refinery utilization (WPULEUS3). EIA retail diesel (EMD_EPD2D_PTE_NUS_DPG), Nov 9, 2026.
- OilPriceAPI daily history through Nov 10, 2026: WTI_USD, GASOLINE_RBOB_USD, HEATING_OIL_USD and GASOIL_USD.
- G&R blog, Aug 7, 2026, “Why Haven't the Tanks Run Dry?”. Barron's Live, Sept 29, 2026, as paraphrased by G&R; exact wording not verified.
Not investment advice. No forecast is made here.