Is US Natural Gas Really 80% Cheaper? Henry Hub vs TTF, NBP and JKM

Against the big import hubs, 80% understates it: on Nov 10, 2026, Henry Hub front-month gas at $3.24/MMBtu was 88.0% cheaper than TTF, 88.3% cheaper than NBP and 89.7% cheaper than JKM. Against "anywhere", it overstates it: gas at the Waha hub in West Texas was cheaper still, at $1.71/MMBtu on Nov 9, 2026.

In World Bank data, a discount of roughly 80% to Europe has been normal since 2022, and 88–90% is near the record month, 90.2% (Dec 2021). The import-hub verdict would flip if the discount to TTF fell back to its Feb 2026 level of 71%.

The claim

Per Barron's Live (recorded September 2026), paraphrased: at about $3, US natural gas is about 80% cheaper than anywhere else.

In its strongest accurate form, the claim says US benchmark gas costs a fraction of what the main import hubs in Europe and Asia pay. We test it against TTF, NBP and JKM, then against cheaper US hubs.

Four hubs on Nov 10, 2026

Source: OilPriceAPI, all four prices dated Nov 10, 2026. Discount = 1 − Henry Hub ÷ hub price; for TTF, 1 − 3.24 ÷ 27.07 = 88.0%. TTF: €82.47/MWh × EUR/USD 1.12 ÷ 3.412 MMBtu per MWh = $27.07. NBP: 206.04p/therm = £2.0604/therm × GBP/USD 1.34 = $2.761/therm × 10 therms per MMBtu = $27.61. JKM is quoted in $/MMBtu.

NATURAL_GAS_USD is the NYMEX front-month future, not the physical spot price. EIA's Henry Hub spot was $2.63 on Nov 3, 2026 (OPA NATURAL_GAS_HENRY_HUB_SPOT_USD). We use the front-month because all four prints share a date.

Current prices: Henry Hub, TTF and European gas hubs. The TTF unit change is worked through in converting TTF from €/MWh to $/MMBtu.

The discount since 2010

In World Bank data, Henry Hub's discount to Europe averaged 56.7% in 2010–2019. It has run higher since: 90.2% in Dec 2021, the record month, then averages of 83.4% in 2022 and 76.7% in 2023–2025.

Sources: World Bank Pink Sheet monthly prices (Europe and Japan LNG series) through Dec 2025; 2026 rows computed from OilPriceAPI monthly data. The World Bank Europe series and TTF are different series, so the 2026 rows are close, not identical, comparisons.

Monthly and daily Henry Hub history is on the natural gas price history page.

Wider since the Hormuz closure

Henry Hub's discount to TTF was 71% in Feb 2026, before the Strait of Hormuz closure, and 89.4% in Oct 2026.

That is the timing, not a cause. These figures do not split the change into TTF rising and Henry Hub falling, so we claim nothing beyond it.

“Anywhere” is too broad

Henry Hub is a benchmark, not the cheapest US gas. Waha, in West Texas, was $1.71/MMBtu on Nov 9, 2026 (OPA NATURAL_GAS_WAHA), below Henry Hub's $3.24 on Nov 10.

Canada's AECO hub is also cited as cheaper than Henry Hub. OilPriceAPI's AECO series has not updated since Sep 1, 2026, so we give no AECO figure. The Waha vs Henry Hub basis guide shows how to track the Waha gap.

Check it yourself in Python

Three codes from /v1/prices/latest: NATURAL_GAS_USD, DUTCH_TTF_EUR, and EUR_USD for the currency step. Each print has its own timestamp; the script prints them because the three may not be simultaneous.

import requests

URL = "https://api.oilpriceapi.com/v1/prices/latest"
HEADERS = {"Authorization": "Token YOUR_API_KEY"}
MMBTU_PER_MWH = 3.412142

def latest(code):
    r = requests.get(URL, params={"by_code": code}, headers=HEADERS, timeout=10)
    r.raise_for_status()
    return r.json()["data"]

hh = latest("NATURAL_GAS_USD")   # Henry Hub front-month, $/MMBtu
ttf = latest("DUTCH_TTF_EUR")    # TTF, EUR/MWh
fx = latest("EUR_USD")           # US dollars per euro

ttf_usd = ttf["price"] * fx["price"] / MMBTU_PER_MWH
discount = 1 - hh["price"] / ttf_usd
print(f"Henry Hub {hh['price']:.2f} vs TTF {ttf_usd:.2f} $/MMBtu: {discount:.1%} cheaper")
print("timestamps:", hh["created_at"], ttf["created_at"], fx["created_at"])

Natural gas benchmarks for developers covers units, currencies and timestamps for Henry Hub, TTF and NBP.