EIA's 1.6 Billion-Barrel Oil Glut and Its Straight-Line Brent Forecast: Comparing Art Berman's Charts with the Data

The claims, in Art Berman's words

On Nov 11, 2026, Art Berman posted “EIA Projects an Unprecedented 1.6 Billion-Barrel Oil Surplus”, adding: “Production and consumption have historically adjusted together—even during COVID.”

Later the same day he posted “EIA hired an engineer with a straight-edge for its Brent projection”, with: “Price will average $99 in December and $86 in 2027.”

Both posts carry Berman's own charts. Read them on X; the charts below are ours, rebuilt from EIA's published series so anyone can check them.

Rebuilding the 1.6 billion barrels

EIA's STEO publishes world production (series PAPR_WORLD) and world consumption (PATC_WORLD) in million barrels a day (mb/d). Production minus consumption, times the days in each month, gives the implied change in world stocks.

Summed from Oct 2026 to Dec 2027, the implied build is 1,613 million barrels. Calendar 2027 alone is 1,478 million barrels, an average of 4.05 mb/d. Oct 2026 is an EIA estimate, and every month from Nov 2026 on is an EIA STEO forecast.

Berman calls it unprecedented. In EIA's STEO data back to Jan 1993, the largest 15-month build before this one was 1,139 million barrels, from Mar 2019 to May 2020. That window holds the COVID collapse: the implied build in Apr 2020 alone was 16.1 mb/d. On EIA's own numbers, the forecast build is about 474 million barrels larger than that record (1,613 − 1,139).

Berman's second point, that production and consumption normally move together, shows in the chart. Outside 2020 the monthly gap stays within a few mb/d. The 2020 build came from demand collapsing, and it reversed within a year. The 2027 build in the forecast comes from supply returning: EIA assumes most Middle East production outside Iran returns to pre-conflict levels by mid-2027 (STEO, Nov 10, 2026).

The straight-line Brent forecast

Berman's figures match. In the STEO, Brent averages $99.00 in Dec 2026, then falls $2.00 a month from $97 in Jan 2027 to $75 in Dec 2027. Those twelve monthly values average $86.00. Brent averaged $123.93 in Oct 2026 (EIA series BREPUUS, same release).

A tip if you model on these numbers: the monthly values in EIA's data API are rounded to the dollar. EIA's Table 2 gives the 2027 annual average as $85.78, and $77 for the fourth quarter of 2027. The straight line is real at whole-dollar precision.

EIA's forecast vs the futures curve

EIA finished this forecast on Nov 5, 2026, and Brent spot fell below $100 on Nov 4 (STEO, Nov 10, 2026). On Nov 11, ICE Brent futures put the Jan 2027 contract at $92.46 a barrel at 22:59 UTC, $6.54 under EIA's Dec 2026 figure. The Jan to Dec 2027 contracts averaged $84.62, against EIA's $86.00.

The two lines cross. Futures sit $4.54 under EIA in Jan 2027 and $3.77 above it in Dec 2027 ($78.77 against $75). The market priced a faster fall in early 2027 and a shallower one after. This compares EIA's monthly average spot price with the futures contract for the same delivery month, so treat it as a rough comparison.

Why the forecast and the market differ

Timing explains part of it. EIA's inputs stop on Nov 5, and Brent was still falling after that. The rest is a judgement about how fast the stock build arrives and how long a risk premium lasts. EIA itself says Middle East flows remain susceptible to disruption, so short-term prices will move more than its monthly line suggests (STEO, Nov 10, 2026). A straight line is a modelling choice, not a claim that prices will move smoothly.

Pull this yourself with OilPriceAPI

The snippet prints our ICE Brent curve and the STEO reports we store. Two fixes are in progress, and this section depends on both. Our stored Nov 2026 STEO report currently holds the October vintage (api#10852). Some back months of the curve can carry a stale close (api#10853). Until both are fixed, the figures on this page come from EIA's API directly and from fresh ICE quotes only.

import requests

HEADERS = {"Authorization": "Token YOUR_API_KEY"}
BASE = "https://api.oilpriceapi.com/v1"

# ICE Brent futures curve: one row per contract month.
curve = requests.get(f"{BASE}/futures/ice-brent/curve",
                     headers=HEADERS, timeout=10)
curve.raise_for_status()
for c in curve.json()["data"]["contracts"]:
    print(c["contract_month"], c["settlement_price"], c["trading_date"])

# EIA STEO reports we store, newest first.
steo = requests.get(f"{BASE}/ei/forecasts", headers=HEADERS, timeout=10)
steo.raise_for_status()
for report in steo.json()["data"][:2]:
    print(report["report_month"], report["status"])

Related data: EIA STEO forecasts, Brent futures curve, live Brent price, Brent price history, Brent physical vs futures, US oil inventories, US oil production, Brent futures API, EIA data API, and our earlier check Has the Permian peaked?

What to watch

EIA releases the next STEO on Dec 8, 2026. If the December forecast moves the build or flattens the price line toward the futures curve, that settles which side moved. Weekly US inventories from EIA's Weekly Petroleum Status Report show whether builds are starting.