Gas Prices Fall Below $4: What the Gap to Wholesale Gasoline Shows (Nov 2026)

By OilPriceAPI · Published Nov 13, 2026 · EIA weekly retail data through Nov 9, 2026; OilPriceAPI RBOB data through Nov 12, 2026; both retrieved Nov 13, 2026

U.S. regular gasoline averaged $3.995 a gallon on Nov 9, 2026, the first weekly reading below $4 since Jul 13, 2026 ($3.855), after 16 straight weeks at or above $4 (EIA). It is going down because wholesale gasoline fell first and fell further: from Oct 26 to Nov 9, 2026, the OilPriceAPI RBOB series fell $0.47 a gallon, from $3.18 to $2.71, while retail fell $0.274.

That left retail $1.285 above RBOB on Nov 9, 2026, the widest gap of the 45 Mondays in 2026 to that date. If the gap returned to its average of the prior 13 weeks ($0.997) with RBOB unchanged at $2.71, retail would be $3.707, about 29 cents lower. That is arithmetic on a measured gap, not a forecast.

The claims

Both come from Javier Blas, in posts on X on Nov 10, 2026. The first: “US average retail gasoline price drops below $4 a gallon (to $3.9788) for the first time in 114 days.” The second: “US gasoline retail prices have a LOT of space to fall.” He went on: “judging by the very slow drop in retail prices vs the plunge in wholesale costs, the feather must be from a tiny hummingbird.” The observations and the framing are his; this piece compares them with EIA and OilPriceAPI data.

Verdict, as of Nov 12, 2026: right on the level and on the gap; the weekly data does not show retail moving unusually slowly. EIA's weekly series crossed below $4 on Nov 9, 2026, and the retail gap over RBOB is the widest of 2026. But in the two weeks to Nov 9, 2026, retail passed through 58% of RBOB's fall, against 52% of RBOB's rise in the two weeks to Mar 9, 2026. The gap widened as RBOB fell $0.47 in two weeks.

Below $4, measured two ways

Blas's post gives $3.9788 and does not name its source. EIA's weekly survey gives $3.995 for Nov 9, 2026 and $4.153 for Nov 2, 2026. The two agree on timing: 114 days before Nov 10, 2026 is Jul 19, 2026, which falls between EIA's last reading below $4 ($3.855 on Jul 13, 2026) and its first at or above ($4.001 on Jul 20, 2026).

The same post says the average is “still up ~30% from pre-war levels” against “a peak of ~53% increase set in May”. On EIA's weekly series, the Nov 9, 2026 reading is 36.0% above the $2.937 of Feb 23, 2026, and the 2026 high of $4.500 on May 11, 2026 was 53.2% above it. The peak matches. The current figure is higher on EIA data than his ~30%; his post does not give its base date or series, so we cannot say why.

U.S. regular retail gasoline (EIA weekly, series EMM_EPMR_PTE_NUS_DPG, including taxes) and the OilPriceAPI RBOB gasoline futures-tracking series (GASOLINE_RBOB_USD, daily average on the same Monday), USD per gallon, weekly, Jan 5 to Nov 9, 2026. Dotted line: $4.00. Sources: EIA and OilPriceAPI, retrieved Nov 13, 2026.

The gap between retail and wholesale

The gap here is EIA's Monday retail price minus the RBOB daily average for the same Monday. In 2026 it has ranged from $0.432 on Mar 9, 2026, when RBOB had jumped and retail had not caught up, to $1.285 on Nov 9, 2026. It averaged $1.009 over the eight Mondays from Jan 5 to Feb 23, 2026, and $0.997 over the 13 Mondays from Aug 10 to Nov 2, 2026.

U.S. regular retail gasoline, RBOB and the gap between them on the last eight Mondays, USD per gallon
Monday	Retail, $/gal	RBOB, $/gal	Gap, $/gal
Sep 21, 2026	4.478	3.46	1.018
Sep 28, 2026	4.465	3.32	1.145
Oct 5, 2026	4.354	3.27	1.084
Oct 12, 2026	4.331	3.28	1.051
Oct 19, 2026	4.284	3.19	1.094
Oct 26, 2026	4.269	3.18	1.089
Nov 2, 2026	4.153	2.99	1.163
Nov 9, 2026	3.995	2.71	1.285

Retail: EIA weekly U.S. regular all formulations retail gasoline price, including taxes. RBOB: OilPriceAPI GASOLINE_RBOB_USD daily average, a futures-tracking series rounded to two decimals, not an official settlement. Gap = retail − RBOB. Both retrieved Nov 13, 2026.

The gap is not a retailer's margin. Retail includes taxes, ethanol blending, distribution and the station's costs, and it is a national average, while RBOB is one futures benchmark for unblended gasoline. What the gap does show is how far one price has moved against the other.

How fast retail follows

Across the 44 week-on-week changes in 2026, the correlation between the change in RBOB and the change in retail is 0.65 in the same week, 0.71 one week later and 0.37 two weeks later. From three to six weeks later it is between -0.06 and 0.14. On this measure, retail responds mainly in the same week and the week after.

“Rockets and feathers” is the idea that retail rises quickly when wholesale rises and falls slowly when it falls. Two episodes from 2026 can be set side by side. From Feb 23 to Mar 9, 2026, RBOB rose $1.09 and retail rose $0.565, or 52%. From Oct 26 to Nov 9, 2026, RBOB fell $0.47 and retail fell $0.274, or 58%. Two episodes are not a test of the theory, but they do not show this fall as slower than that rise.

What the gap would imply

This is a calculation, not a prediction. It asks one question: where would retail be if the gap went back to an earlier average while RBOB stayed where it is?

implied retail = RBOB + average gap

Implied U.S. regular retail gasoline price for two RBOB levels and two average gaps, USD per gallon
RBOB as of	RBOB, $/gal	Average gap over	Gap, $/gal	Implied retail, $/gal	Below Nov 9 retail
Nov 9, 2026	2.71	Prior 13 weeks	0.997	3.707	0.288
Nov 9, 2026	2.71	Jan 5 to Feb 23, 2026	1.009	3.719	0.276
Nov 12, 2026	2.62	Prior 13 weeks	0.997	3.617	0.378
Nov 12, 2026	2.62	Jan 5 to Feb 23, 2026	1.009	3.629	0.366

Computed from the EIA and OilPriceAPI rows above. RBOB on Nov 12, 2026 is the OilPriceAPI daily average of $2.62. Nov 9 retail is EIA's $3.995.

Three things can make the calculation wrong. RBOB can rise, in which case the gap closes from below. The gap has no fixed normal level: it ran from $0.432 to $1.285 in 2026. And a national average hides regional differences in taxes, fuel grades and supply.

What would change this

EIA's next weekly reading is for Nov 16, 2026. A reading at or above $4 would end the run below it after one week.
A gap back near $0.997 with RBOB still near $2.62 would mean retail had caught up. A gap that closes because RBOB rose would mean it had not needed to.

Track it yourself

Both series are in the API as GASOLINE_RETAIL_USD and GASOLINE_RBOB_USD. Retail history in the API starts on Apr 20, 2026; the earlier retail figures on this page come from EIA directly. See the gasoline price API, the US gasoline prices page, the live RBOB price and the RBOB data guide for developers.

import datetime as dt
import requests

API = "https://api.oilpriceapi.com/v1/prices/past_year"
HEADERS = {"Authorization": "Token YOUR_API_KEY"}

def daily(code):
    r = requests.get(API, params={"by_code": code, "interval": "1d"},
                     headers=HEADERS, timeout=30)
    r.raise_for_status()
    return {row["created_at"][:10]: float(row["price"])
            for row in r.json()["data"]["prices"]}

retail = daily("GASOLINE_RETAIL_USD")  # EIA weekly, USD per gallon
rbob = daily("GASOLINE_RBOB_USD")      # futures-tracking, USD per gallon

mondays = [d for d in sorted(set(retail) & set(rbob))
           if dt.date.fromisoformat(d).weekday() == 0]  # EIA survey day
for day in mondays[-8:]:
    print(day, f"retail {retail[day]:.3f}", f"RBOB {rbob[day]:.2f}",
          f"gap {retail[day] - rbob[day]:.3f}")

Related: RBOB gasoline at its lowest since early March has the daily wholesale readings, and why diesel is so expensive covers diesel.

Sources

Javier Blas, posts on X, Nov 10, 2026: retail price below $4 and rockets and feathers.
EIA, gasoline and diesel fuel update: U.S. regular all formulations retail gasoline price, weekly, series EMM_EPMR_PTE_NUS_DPG, Jan 5 to Nov 9, 2026. Retrieved Nov 13, 2026.
OilPriceAPI GASOLINE_RBOB_USD: daily averages from /v1/prices/past_year through Nov 12, 2026. Retrieved Nov 13, 2026.